Lazio v Roma – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Lazio host Roma on Friday night in a massive Rome derby. The visitors need a win to stop Milan from pulling away at the top of the Serie A table whilst Lazio are five points off the Champions League places and also don’t want to be cut adrift.

Lazio Form

Lazio have had an up and down season. They lost two of their first four league matches then went on an eight match unbeaten run in Serie A and the Champions League. That was followed by a period with just two wins across eight matches with defeats to Udinese, Hellas Verona and Milan.

Things have picked up in recent weeks and Lazio have won back to back Serie A matches for the first time since early November with 2-1 victories at home to Fiorentina and 2-0 away at Parma. Felipe Caicedo scored in both matches.

Lazio Team News

Lazio have some long term injury problems they continue to deal with. Veteran goalkeeper Silvio Proto is missing and so are two options for left wingback in Senad Lulic and Mohamed Fares. Adam Marusic, more naturally a right sided wide player is expected to continue to deputise.

In attack, Joaquin Correa has missed the last few matches but Ciro Immobile and Felipe Caicedo are working well together as a front pairing. Lazio set up in a 3-5-2 shape under Simone Inzaghi and have a settled starting XI.

Lazio Motivation

Biancocelesti are four home Rome derbies unbeaten and will play to win this match as they look to close the gap to fourth spot. Inzaghi’s side have five points this season when losing at half time (W1, D2) which is amongst the best records in Serie A.

They don’t often change formation when trailing but they get their two attacking midfielders in Sergej Milinković-Savić and Luis Alberto high up the pitch in support of the front pairing and can really turn the screw on their opponents. A draw in this match would not be a disaster (a defeat would be!) but would be a disappointment for the fans.

Roma Form

Roma drew 2-2 with Inter Milan in their last match to stay in the title race picture. Gianluca Mancini scored a late equaliser to rescue a point at home. Lorenzo Pellegrini had given the Giallorossi the lead.

Paulo Fonseca’s side have had a good campaign thus far. In 22 matches in all competitions, they have lost just three times. In league action, they have five wins and a draw in their last seven.

Roma Team News

Roma are still expected to be without Pedro on the right flank but Pellegrini has been doing well in his absence in Roma’s 3-4-2-1 shape. Edin Dzeko led the line against Inter Milan and should again bench Borja Mayoral despite the striker’s recent brace against Crotone.

Roma are likely to be without Federico Fazio at centre back and Davide Santon as a wingback option but they both Bruno Peres and Leonardo Spinazzola provide options in the wide areas.

Roma Motivation

Fonseca’s side average over two goals scored per match but are not one of the league’s better sides in terms of defensive record. They will attack Lazio as a draw would be a blow to their title chances with the recent form of Juventus and the two Milan giants.

Key Stats

Lazio have kept 1 clean sheet in their last 8 Serie A home matches

Lazio have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4 home Serie A matches

Lazio have won 3 of their last 5 Serie A matches

The last two Rome derbies have ended in draws

Roma have won 5 of their last 7 Serie matches

Roma have kept 1 clean sheet in their last 8 matches

Roma have seen over 3.5 goals in their last 6 away Serie A matches

Roma are 6 away Serie A matches without a clean sheet

Prediction

A high scoring match is expected when Roma are involved, especially on the road. A high scoring draw looks the most likely outcome from this match or a narrow Roma win.

Best Bet: Draw at 3.65

Alternative Bet: Draw with goals at 4.25

Alternative Bet: Roma to win by one goal at 3.75

Alternative Bet: Draw and over 2.5 goals at 9.50