Juventus v Napoli – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Juventus host Napoli in Serie A on Sunday evening. The hosts have had an amazing few days, reaching the Europa League semi-finals and seeing their 15-point deduction overturned. The latter decision sees them jump to third in the table. Napoli are reeling from the UEFA Champions League exit in midweek but they’re 14 points clear in Serie A and will almost certainly be champions.

Juventus Form

Juve had had a blip of late having been in outstanding form prior to that. After a 2-0 home loss to Monza in January, they won 11 of their next 13 matches in all competitions. In Serie A, it was seven wins in eight matches during that streak as only Roma beat them.

They had a 1-1 home draw with Inter Milan in the Coppa Italia semi-final first leg, prior to losing their last two league matches, 2-1 at high-flying Lazio and then 1-0 away at Sassuolo. In between those defeats was a 1-0 home win vs Sporting Lisbon in the Europa League. On Thursday, they finished the job by drawing 1-1 in Portugal to reach the semi-finals.

Juventus Team News

Max Allegri rested the majority of his starting lineup last weekend in the loss to Sassuolo. He was prioritising the Sporting Lisbon match and recalled all of his top players for that one. He looks set to play a similar team in this match. Moise Kean is injured but everyone else is available.

Paul Pogba has had a couple of substitute runouts and must be close to starting this fixture. Allegri could stick with a 4-3-3 or he could recall Federico Gatti as an extra defender and leave Federico Chiese on the bench.

Juventus Motivation

The Old Lady have a six-point buffer in the top-four race and will play to win this one. Even a win would only close the gap to Napoli to 13 points so the title is already gone.

Juve played on Thursday night and have been resting players in some recent league matches. They may be fatigued and not 100% focused on this match.

Napoli Form

Napoli are having a drop in performances and results in recent weeks. They lost 1-0 at home to Lazio in early March but followed that up with three successive wins, including 3-0 vs Eintracht Frankfurt in the UEFA Champions League round of 16 second-leg. However, a shock 4-0 home loss to Milan began April on a downer.

They won 2-1 at Lecce after that but it’s their only victory in the last five fixtures across all competitions. They drew AC Milan in the Champions League and were knocked out 2-1 on aggregate after a 1-0 away loss and 1-1 home draw on Tuesday. Prior to that, they could only draw 0-0 at home with Verona in Serie A. They only put up 0.41 xG from 80% possession in that stalemate.

Napoli Team News

Luciano Spalletti will have Kim Min-Jae and Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa back in the XI for this one. They were suspended in Europa in midweek. The coach saw two players go off injured in that match as winger Matteo Politano had to be replaced by Hirving Lozano. Left-back Mario Rui also had to be taken off and Mathias Olivera could take his spot for this one.

There is a doubt over defender Amir Rrahmani so Juan Jesus could partner Kim. Forward Giovanni Simeone is set to miss out with an injury but Victor Osimhen should be fit to start and he has 26 goals this season.

Napoli Motivation

Morale may be a bit deflated after recent results and their European exit. They’re very likely to win the league and have big points buffer to the second spot of 14 points.

That may mean that they’re not 100% focused or motivated to win this match. A draw could be seen as a satisfactory result.

Key Stats

Juventus have the best home record in Serie A this season (P15, W11, D3, L1)

Juve have conceded in 4 of their last 6 home league matches (9 goals leaked)

Juventus have lost their last 2 Serie A matches

Napoli have 1 win in their last 5 matches in all competitions (LWLDD)

Napoli’s Osimhen has scored 26 goals this season (22 Serie A, 4 Champions League)

Napoli have lost 3 of their last 4 away Serie A matches vs Juventus

Verdict

This is a tough match to call after both sides’ involvement in Europe in midweek. Juve are great at home but have only had two rest days before this fixture. Napoli are in a slight rut and may be satisfied to avoid defeat in a small step towards the Scudetto.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score at 1.80
Alternative Bet: Juventus win/draw double chance + Over 1.5 goals at 2.20
Anytime Goalscorer Double: Osimhen and Vlahovic to both score at 7.85
Value Bet: Draw at 3.10

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis