AC Milan v Lazio – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

AC Milan host Lazio at the San Siro on Saturday evening. The sides are already separated by eight points after just six rounds of action. Milan have begun the season in largely impressive form whilst Sarri’s side have been beaten in three of their six league matches so far. The Rossoneri have won their last four home matches vs. Lazio.

AC Milan Form

Milan started the season well with three wins and eight goals scored in their first three Serie A matches. They won 2-0 at Bologna, 4-1 against Torino, and then 2-1 at Roma despite playing the final 30 minutes with ten men. That made a 5-1 thrashing vs. Inter in the Milan derby all the more surprising.

They allowed 2.65 xG and only created 1.06 xG themselves.
Pioli’s side responded very well performance-wise in a 0-0 home draw with Newcastle in the Champions League. They had 25 shots and missed four ‘big chances’ in the stalemate with 1.99 xG put up. Their last two matches have seen six points accrued. An early goal brought a 1-0 win at home to Verona before a 3-1 victory at Cagliari on Wednesday night.

AC Milan Team News

Stefano Pioli has several injury concerns for this big match. Mike Maignan has a muscle injury and will need a late fitness test, with Marco Sportiello on standby to cover. Captain Davide Calabria should return right back in place of Alessandro Florenzi.

Rade Krunic will miss this match in midfield and Ismael Bennacer may only return after the FIFA break. Fringe striker Luka Jovic and defender Pierre Kalulu are other doubts, but neither would have started. Rafael Leao had a partial rest in midweek at Cagliari and will return to start down the left. Olivier Giroud had a full rest on Wednesday and will replace Noah Okafor up front.

AC Milan Motivation

Milan will play for all three points in this match as they look to mount a title challenge. A draw is not a disaster but it isn’t a result they will be satisfied to settle for.

With a stronger bench this year, Pioli has options to turn games in the second half and he won’t hesitate to freshen his attack with substitutions.

Lazio Form

The Rome club have been all over the show this season. They lost 2-1 at Lecce and 1-0 at home to Genoa to start the season. In round three, they went away to champions Napoli and won 2-1 but round four saw them lose again, 3-1 at Juventus as their opponents put up 2.39 xG.

Lazio then needed a last-gasp header from their goalkeeper to earn a 1-1 home draw in the UEFA Champions League against Atletico Madrid. An uninspiring 1-1 home draw with Monza followed before an unconvincing 2-0 home win against Torino in midweek. They only had six shots in the match but they eked out a much-needed three points.

Lazio Team News

Maurizio Sarri has no injuries or suspensions for this match. He has been rotating his XI quite a bit with the busy schedule this season. Nicolo Casale will be preferred at centre back to Patric. Matias Vecino and Nicolo Rovella are set to get the nod in central midfield.

Matteo Guendouzi, Gustav Isaksen, and Elseid Hysaj all started the draw vs. Monza before being dropped for the win against Torino in midweek. Sarri could stick with a winning XI. Argentine striker Valentin Castellanos will continue to be a bit-part player (51 minutes in five outings) as Ciro Immobile leads the line.

Lazio Motivation

With the side playing in the Champions League, attention is divided. They travel to face Celtic away on Wednesday and they may have one eye on that.

For this match, Sarri will set his side up to control possession and try to win at the San Siro. A draw would be a good result on paper to build on their three-match unbeaten run.

Key Stats

Milan have won 5 of their 6 Serie A matches this season

Milan have won their last 4 home matches vs Lazio

AC Milan are unbeaten in 11 home league matches (8 wins, 3 draws)

Lazio have lost 3 of their 5 Serie A matches this term

Lazio have conceded in 6 of their 7 matches this season (all competitions)

Lazio have lost 4 of their last 7 away matches in Serie A, conceding 2+ goals in each defeat

Verdict

Based on current form and Milan’s home record vs. Lazio, they are backed to win this match. With their firepower and a fresh Rafael Leao, AC Milan are backed to score at least twice in the game.

Best Bet: Milan win at 1.76
Alternative Bet: Milan to score over 1.5 goals at 1.86
Value Bet: AC Milan to win 2-1, 3-1 or 4-1 at 4.90