Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid: Preview and Betting Tips | UCL 2025

These clubs met four weeks ago as Los Blancos outshot Atleti 23-10 in a 1-1 draw. Atletico Madrid have lost just one of their last seven matches vs Real Madrid with four of those finishing in 1-1 draws.

Match: Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid
When: Tuesday, 04 March 2025, 22:00
Where: Santiago Bernabéu

Real Madrid Form

Los Blancos went into their last match on a run of one defeat in 13 matches. That loss was a 1-0 defeat away to Espanyol at the beginning of February. The side responded with a 3-2 Copa del Rey win at Leganes before equalising to draw 1-1 at home to Atletico Madrid. They bounced back to win 3-2 away at Man City with 3.30 xG and 20 shots.

With their minds elsewhere, they drew 1-1 at Osasuna with ten men before beating Man City 3-1 to reach the last 16. A 2-0 win over Girona and a 1-0 cup win at Real Sociedad came next. On Saturday, they lost 2-1 at Real Betis with 2.39 xG and 18 shots allowed to their opponents.

Real Madrid Team News

Carlo Ancelotti is without Eder Militao and Dani Carvajal in defence for this match. David Alaba is fit again but he is looking rusty.

Dani Ceballos will miss this match, meaning Fede Valverde may play deeper in preference to starting Luka Modric or Eduardo Camavinga. Jude Bellingham is suspended for this match so Brahim Diaz is an option as a number ten.

Real Madrid Motivation

Madrid’s dropped points in La Liga around Champions League matches is an indication of their focus on Europe. Full attention will go on lifting this trophy once again.

Ancelotti won’t play an open style, knowing the counter attack threat of Diego Simeone’s side. They will look to win this first leg to have something to protect ahead of the return fixture next week.

Atletico Madrid Form

Atletico had an incredible 15-match winning streak earlier this season. Their 11 matches since then have seen just six wins. A 1-0 loss at Leganes was followed by a 2-1 Champions League victory over Bayer Leverkusen. After dropping points in a 1-1 La Liga draw at home to Villarreal, three wins followed.

In their last six fixtures, they have three wins and three draws. They eked out a 1-1 draw at Real Madrid before the same scoreline at home to Celta Vigo. A 3-0 win at Valencia preceded a crazy 4-4 draw at Barcelona where Atleti led 2-0 and trailed 4-2. On Saturday, a goal in the second half was enough to beat Athletic Bilbao 1-0 at home.

Atletico Madrid Team News

Atletico look set to be without Koke in central midfield for this one. Cesar Azpilicueta is an injury doubt in defence. Diego Simeone rotated his team over the weekend and could recall many of those players.

Conor Gallagher may be back on the left wing with Marcos Llorente returning at right fullback. Julian Alvarez is another who played just 30 minutes over the weekend and who should return fully fresh.

Atletico Madrid Motivation

A conservative approach for this match looks very likely. Atletico will look to avoid defeat in this first leg.

The return fixture will see a more positive outlook. With no away goals rule, there is little reason for Diego Simeone’s team to attack.

Key Stats

Real Madrid have lost just 1 of their last 18 home UCL matches

Real Madrid’s Mbappe has scored 18 goals in his last 20 matches

Real Madrid have won just 1 of their last 7 matches vs Atletico Madrid (four 1-1 draws)

Atletico Madrid’s last 8 meetings vs Real Madrid have seen 30 goals

Atletico Madrid have lost just 1 of their last 26 matches

Verdict

This should be an intense tactical battle. Atletico are very hard to beat in the big matches and have fresh legs to call upon. The best bet may be a draw in this first leg.

Best Bet: Draw at 3.50
Anytime Goalscorer Bet: Kylian Mbappe at 2.15
Correct Score Bet: Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico Madrid at 5.75