Real Madrid v RB Leipzig – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Real Madrid face RB Leipzig in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday. Los Blancos hold a narrow 1-0 advantage from the first leg. All three previous meetings between these clubs have been won by the Spanish giants.

Real Madrid Form

Real Madrid are unbeaten in nine matches since losing 4-2 at Atletico Madrid in the Copa del Rey. That was one of just two losses all season for Carlo Ancelotti’s side. Three wins followed that defeat before a 1-1 draw against their city rivals in La Liga.

Going into the first leg, Madrid thumped title rivals Girona 4-0 before the 1-0 victory in Germany against the Red Bulls. Their three matches since then have been a 1-1 draw at Rayo Vallecano, a 1-0 home win over Sevilla, and then a 2-2 draw at Valencia on Saturday.

Real Madrid Team News

Ancelotti remains without his three long-term injured players goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois and defenders David Alaba and Eder Militao. The big decision is at the centre back for the coach. He must decide whether to recall Nacho alongside Antonio Rudiger or use Aurelien Tchouameni there.

The rest of the side picks itself with Jude Bellingham back into contention after missing the first leg. Rodrygo will play as one of the fronts two with Joselu on the bench. Toni Kroos is set to get the nod in preference to Luka Modric.

Real Madrid Motivation

Los Blancos have tended to leak a goal in many recent matches. If that is repeated, they will need to score in this tie to progress.

Expect Ancelotti’s side to try to control the game through possession or by sitting back and using fast counters. They won’t press high or use the defensive line on the halfway line.

RB Leipzig Form

After finishing last year with four wins in five matches, it has not been a straightforward 2024. Their opening three fixtures of the year ended in losses, beginning with a 1-0 home defeat to Eintracht Frankfurt and a 3-2 home loss to Bayer Leverkusen. A poor 5-2 defeat at Stuttgart followed.

After a 2-0-win vs Union Berlin and a 2-2 draw at Augsburg, they lost 1-0 at home to Real Madrid in the first leg. After bouncing back to Borussia Monchengladbach 2-0, they conceded late to lose 2-1 at Bayern Munich. The past weekend saw a 4-1 win at Bochum with 2.13 xG produced.

RB Leipzig Team News

Marco Rose is still set to be with Lukas Klostermann in defence due to injury. Mohamed Simakan is suspended for this clash so youngster Castello Lukeba may partner Will Orban.

Amadou Haidara is fit to feature after missing the first leg with a knee problem. Ikoma Openda is expected to start after Yussuf Poulsen had an opportunity over the weekend.

RB Leipzig Motivation

RB Leipzig have no choice but to attack. With Rose’s attacking 4-4-2 shape, they have the firepower to score in the match.

If they get the first goal, the tie is alive. There is nothing to lose and motivation to cause an upset is very high.

Key Stats

Real Madrid have lost just 2 matches all season

Real Madrid are unbeaten in 9 matches

Real Madrid have won 11 of their last 12 home matches

RB Leipzig have lost 6 of their last 11 away matches

RB Leipzig have lost their last 3 matches vs Real Madrid

Verdict

You can’t see this tie turning around. Real Madrid should win this leg, but they may leak a goal with a much-changed back four of late.

Best Bet: Real Madrid Win at 1.55

Value Bet: Real Madrid win and both teams to score 3.05

Goalscorer Tip: Bellingham anytime goalscorer at 2.10

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis