Real Madrid v Liverpool – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Real Madrid host Liverpool at Santiago Bernabéu on Wednesday. Los Blancos hold a 5-2 first-leg lead and are overwhelming favourites to progress at 1.01 odds. The Reds will need a miracle but will take hope from Chelsea leading 3-0 at the Bernabéu last season. Since the first leg, Madrid have just one win in four fixtures as their attention is focused on this competition.

Real Madrid Form

Madrid have faltered somewhat in the title race since the turn of the year. They’ve dropped points in five of their last ten La Liga matches and now sit nine points off Barcelona in La Liga. They won the FIFA Club World Cup and won successive league matches before the 5-2 victory at Anfield.

After that incredible first-leg victory, they needed a late goal to draw 1-1 with city rivals, Atletico Madrid, and then lost 1-0 in the Copa Del Rey to Barcelona in a toothless display. A 0-0 draw at Real Betis preceded a 3-1 home win against Espanyol.

Real Madrid Team News

Ferland Mendy and David Alaba are both set to be missing at left back, although the former is back in training. Nacho is most likely to cover in that role with Antonio Rudiger back in the XI after being benched over the weekend. Eduardo Camavinga has deputised in that role too but Carlo Ancelotti is unlikely to take that risk in this match.

Karim Benzema was left out of the win against Espanyol for “personal reasons” but he looks like a certain starter in this one. Aurelien Tchouameni and Camavinga are competing for one spot in midfield unless Toni Kroos is left on the bench.

Real Madrid Motivation

Madrid doesn’t have to take any major risks in this match. They will keep the ball and frustrate Liverpool.

If they can nick a goal, then Liverpool needs to score at least four goals to even take the match to extra time. Los Blancos won’t care too much if they don’t win the match but they will want at least a draw.

Liverpool Form

It’s one step forward, one step back for Liverpool right now. They recovered from their previous disastrous defensive form and four losses in seven matches by keeping five league clean sheets in a row. However, the Reds led 2-0 at home to Real Madrid before leaking five times in 47 minutes of action.  

After that, they drew 0-0 at Crystal Palace before winning 2-0 against Wolves thanks to two late goals. They then plundered Man Utd in a 7-0 victory from eight shots on target. Typical of their inconsistency, though, is that they then went to bottom-placed Bournemouth and lost 1-0. Mo Salah missed a 70th-minute penalty as the Reds missed four ‘big chances’.

Liverpool Team News

Liverpool have four injuries for this match as Luis Diaz remains absent after knee surgery and Thiago Alcantara rehabs his groin problem. Naby Keita and Joe Gomez are doubtful but wouldn’t have started anyway.

With a big win needed, Jurgen Klopp could go with Jordan Henderson and Fabinho as a midfield two with Diogo Jota coming into the XI as a number ten to play behind Cody Gakpo. Roberto Firmino is another option if the Reds go to a 4-2-3-1 shape.

Liverpool Motivation

The chances of progressing are very slim but Liverpool will try for a miracle. Klopp’s side will focus on scoring the first goal and cutting the advantage.

Liverpool’s team selection will inform their approach. If they go with four attackers, they can’t do anything except attack.

Key Stats

Real Madrid have won 6 of their last 7 matches vs Liverpool (one draw)

Real Madrid have 1 win in their last 4 matches (all competitions)

Real have conceded in 5 of their last 6 home matches in the UCL

Liverpool have lost 2 of their last 14 away matches in this competition

Liverpool have scored 2+ goals in 8 of their last 9 on the road in the UC

Verdict

This match should have goals. Madrid just needs a draw and there could be decent value in backing Liverpool to nick a narrow win. It’s impossible to see them qualifying though. With injuries at left-back for Real, Salah could exploit the space down that side.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score + Over 2.5 goals at 1.76

Goalscorer Tip: Salah to score anytime at 2.80

Value Bet: Benzema and Salah to both score anytime at 6.19

Alternative Bet: Liverpool win at 2.85

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis