Real Madrid v Bayern Munich – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Real Madrid host Bayern Munich at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu on Wednesday. The first leg of this UEFA Champions League semi-final finished 2-2 in Bavaria last week. Los Blancos are unbeaten in eight matches vs Die Roten with six wins.

Real Madrid Form

Madrid are 11 matches without defeat in this competition. They reached the semi-final stage by beating Man City on penalties. A 3-3 first leg draw in Spain preceded a 1-1 draw in the second leg in Manchester. Los Blancos were outshot 33-8 in that second clash.

Since then, Real Madrid have scored late to beat Barcelona 3-2 at home in El Clasico before a 1-0 win away at Real Sociedad. The first leg vs Bayern Munich saw an 83rd-minute penalty to rescue a draw despite just 0.98 open play xG produced. A 3-0 weekend win over Cadiz saw them crowned La Liga champions after other results went their way.

Real Madrid Team News

Carlo Ancelotti has Dani Carvajal available at right back after a suspension. Thibaut Courtois returned over the weekend and will hope to be thrust into this clash in preference to Andriy Lunin. David Alaba will play no part due to a knee injury.

Eder Militao is pushing to start after a couple of starts in league action. He is competing with Nacho and Aurélien Tchouaméni to partner Antonio Rudiger.

Real Madrid Motivation

Madrid got the first leg draw they would have wanted. They will have every belief of winning at home to reach the final.

It won’t be an open or overly attacking approach. Ancelotti’s side will sit back at times and play on the counter.

Bayern Form

Bayern are having a poor Bundesliga season and have lost seven of their 32 league matches. They reached this stage in Europe after a 2-2 draw at Arsenal in the first leg of their quarter-final before winning 1-0 at home in Germany. They only allowed the Gunners two second-half shots in that win.

A 5-1 win at Union Berlin was followed by a 2-1 victory vs Eintracht Frankfurt. A week ago, they drew 2-2 at home to Real Madrid as a late penalty for their opponents proved crucial. On Saturday, Thomas Tuchel’s side were outshot 24-10 in a resounding 3-1 loss away at Stuttgart.

Bayern Team News

Sacha Boey and Bouna Sarr remain out injured in defence. Matthijs de Ligt is a doubt with a knee injury and Eric Dier took a knock to the head over the weekend. Dayot Upamecano could therefore play in central defence.

Kingsley Coman is injured, and Raphael Guerreiro has joined him on the treatment table. Serge Gnabry could be selected ahead of Thomas Muller for this one. Noussair Mazraoui is set to start over Alphonso Davies at left back.

Bayern Motivation

Bayern’s motivation to reach the final is huge. They have been phoning in their league games for a while with this competition taking priority.

Tuchel will have a plan to stop Vinicius Jr. in this one and a tactical masterclass is needed to have any chance of progressing.

Key Stats

Real Madrid have lost just 2 matches all season (1 loss in the last 43)

Real Madrid have seen over 2.5 goals in their last 6 matches vs Bayern

Real Madrid are unbeaten in 8 games against Bayern Munich (6 wins)

Bayern Munich have conceded in 16 of their last 19 matches

Bayern have won just 2 of their last 9 away matches

Bayern’s Harry Kane has 8 goals in this season’s Champions League

Verdict

The hosts are major favourites for a match where plenty of goals are expected. You can’t rule out Tuchel winning away at Real Madrid for the third time in a row as a coach though.

Best Bet: Real Madrid win at 1.86

Alternative Bet: Over 3.5 goals at 2.40

Goalscorer Tip: Kane and Vinicius Jr. to both score anytime at 5.80

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis