Analyzing Sundowns Goal Threat & Chance Creation Using xG – Laduma Analytics

Sundowns come into this MTN8 semi-final game having survived a scare against Kaizer Chiefs in the MTN8 quarter-finals two weeks ago. Leading 2-0 against their bitter rivals, Downs threw away a 2-goal lead to take the game to extra time, where Kennedy Mweene’s heroics ensured they made it through. Progress would have been the primary goal, and they’ll be happy but it was the first time a Sundowns side led a PSL side 2-0 but ended up being forced into extra time.

It’s hard to judge trends too early in the season. We still have small samples of data and teams are still getting new personnel settled. With three games played, we have seen many sides to Sundowns already. We saw the swashbuckling side, especially in the first half-hour against Chiefs. Altogether, Downs managed 26 shots against Chiefs although these came in 120 minutes (the 3.0 xG by the end of the game was in the Top10 for a match since Pitso Mosimane left the club). This was followed up by a controlled performance against AmaZulu (1-0 win thanks to Themba Zwane’s penalty), but the shots and chances dried up. The game against Chippa was a continuation of the last one, once again Downs failed to find the net from open play.

A Template From Gavin Hunt

“It’s a bit of an unfair fight, isn’t it?” he said. “Look at them to us. We will just approach it as best we can, we’re going to try and do the best that we can …. We will be organised and we’ll have a go, and you never know.” – Gavin Hunt told reporters ahead of the Sundowns game.

A lot of noise was made about Chippa failing to take a shot against Sundowns during the week. Given his pre-match comments about the gulf in talent between the sides, Gavin Hunt will probably be pleased with the draw. Getting a point from an ‘unfair fight’ may even be considered a win. The first thing one would note when looking at the shot map is the blank slate on Chippa’s side. Is this what he meant by they will be organised? Probably not – he was likely talking about defensive organisation.

Sundowns Lack Of Goal Threat

They managed to successfully stifle Sundowns, who recorded 0.55 xG, creating just the one medium-to-high value chance (Shalulile’s 48th-minute header that went straight to the keeper). Many teams will probably take the Gavin Hunt route and sit back against Sundowns, hoping to get a set-piece break or similar. The onus will often be on the four-time defending champions to fashion the chances, and maybe continuously evolve beyond what may have worked last season.

The passing network from the Chippa (accurate passes only) shows the majority of Downs’ play against Chippa resembling the old cow-horn formation. The thicker the arrows, the more successful passes between a pair of players. Hunt and any other team that comes after him will be content with Sundowns enjoying more action away from their enclosure. Sundowns need to find a way to unlock such defences, and the last two matches have shown how this could be a problem, as we’ve seen a dearth of chances.

The circle colours show which players were most dangerous in the game, based on Expected Threat. The red (highest) and grey (high) circles show where the higher Expected Threat came from for Sundowns, while the blue circles are players who posed the least “danger”. Based on this, Mothobi Mvala would have been the most “threatening” of Sundowns players on the day (at least until the first sub), while Lyle Lakay & Rushine de Reuck were also key parts of Sundowns’ play. Yet, not many chances came out of this.

A Worry For Downs’ Or Just Warming Up?

The Chippa and AmaZulu games rank as one of the worst in terms of chance creation since Mngqithi and co. took charge at the club. However, their next opponent, Golden Arrows also has a recent record of successfully stifling Downs. If opposing teams need a template on how to keep Sundowns at bay, they need to watch these four games very closely – games in which Sundowns were restricted to half-a-goal worth of chances.

Mandla Ncikazi has since left Arrows, but the playing personnel remain largely unchanged. If they can replicate what worked for them in December and April, we could see another low scoring match this weekend. The last thing Arrows will want is to travel to Pretoria for the 2nd leg needing to chase a game.