Soweto Derby – The Numbers Behind The New Coaches

It’s exactly four months this week since Orlando Pirates welcomed Jose Riveiro, their 10th different coaching appointment in 10 seasons since they last won the title. It is fair to say that the Spaniard was not entirely known when he first arrived on these shores. On the other hand, Arthur Zwane was already a well-known figure locally (all the way from his playing career), and although it may have taken some time, Kaizer Chiefs finally got the coach they had developed in place. The contrast in their journeys towards Saturday 3 pm’s handshake could not be starker, and it would take a whole article to explore how their lives and professional experiences have influenced their suitability for their respective roles. Today, we just want to look at the impact the two men charged with ending Sundowns’ hegemony on the PSL title have had in their first handly sample of 15 games.

What Did They Inherit?

To understand how much they have done, it’s important to look at where they both started. Orlando Pirates results may have been patchy under Fadlu Davids & Mandla Ncikazi, but the duo had gone some way to restoring the level of performance one would expect of a title challenger. At least on the defensive side. At the end of last season, the gap between Expected Goals and Expected Goals Against (on a 10-game rolling average), was at its highest level in three years. Jose Riveiro has done well to maintain (maybe even improve) the defensive side of things. The attack is yet to click, but there are positive shoots – six goals in the last three games is not exactly 1999 Orlando Pirates, but you can clearly see the green line (top of the graph) is on an upward trajectory in terms of xG.

For Chiefs, the end of last season was worrying, with defensive issues on the rise. The attacking output was also never consistent in the preceding periods, and even without detailed data, it was clear that surgery was needed more at Chiefs than at Pirates. At a glance, it may look like Zwane’s done well to iron out some of the defensive issues (see the red line going down after a steady spike). But they’re still giving away too many quality chances for a club with their ambitions. Averaging 1xGA per game means you’re set up to concede a goal a game. You could lay blame on individual errors (not structural issues) being the cause of this. There are 34 instances classified as Chiefs errors in our data this season, more than Pirates and Sundowns combined (both 33). Despite the slight improvement on the rolling xG table, it is still short of what the club expected when investing in the likes of Zitha Kwinika & Edmilson.

A quick glance at the static Expected Goals Against data for the season also paints a better picture for Pirates.

Chiefs’ 16.8 xG conceded is the worst in the league, and it is almost par with the actual goals they have conceded (15). Defensively, Chiefs have performed like a relegation side. Only once before have they conceded more at this stage of a season, conceding 17 from 12 games on their way to finishing 9th back in 2001. Pirates xGA of 8.42 points to them being the best defence in the division. Take away the penalties, and that dips to a 6.9 xGA in 12 games, which looks even more exciting.

Below, you can clearly see the marked difference in shots conceded, both in terms of volume and location. Teams are finding it difficult to get the ball up the field against Orlando Pirates and generate shots, but they’re having a field day against Chiefs, who concede 50% more shots than their weekend opponents. Just take a look at that penalty box, and it’s no surprise Chiefs xGA numbers are so high. This has resulted in three clean sheets in 12 games, their joint-lowest at this stage of a PSL campaign.

How Are They Faring Offensively?

Having said that, things start to look better on the offensive side for Chiefs, although both sides have underperformed their xG by almost 5 goals. Late in the transfer window, both teams added firepower up front to address known shortcomings, bringing in Kermit Erasmus, Ndabayithethwa Ndlondlo & Caleb Bimenyimana. The static xG table suggests that attacking-wise, Pirates are a midtable side, coming in at 10th with 13.74 xG. Interestingly, that’s a better xG outcome than Sundowns, who somehow have scored 12 goals more. Pirates are creating enough – from a HR standpoint, the team is filled with creators and unlockers. The issue is more about finishing the chances they generate, and improving especially on shot choice. Pirates’ attacking shortcomings are not as bad as Chiefs’ defensive woes, but it’s clear where improvements need to be made. They have the personnel to progress the ball upfield and repeatedly create chances, they just don’t seem dangerous enough when they get there.

Chiefs have created almost 20xG, the best in the league, and many would credit these to the generous quantity of penalties they’ve won (7, more than anyone in the league). If we take away the spot-kick opportunities, they’re down to just under 15 xG. But, we’d have to take penalties away for all teams and that would still be enough for 3rd place in a non-penalty xG table. Yet, when you consider that five of their seven penalties have been fouls (chances created but illegally denied), it’s fair to say they deserve to be up there on the xG table.

The volume of shots taken favours Chiefs, and their rise to the summit of xG table (they were 4th overall last season) may be a direct consequence of their attacking play. When looking at the raw shot counts, they seem to be more direct. Maybe even, the most direct team in the league, with a league-high 160 shots so far this season. The location of these shots is varied for both sides, although there are fewer efforts for Pirates on the left. There’s an interesting split in where the goals come from with Pirates mostly central and right-leaning, while Chiefs are central and left.

What Can We Expect On Saturday?

Chiefs will slightly be under more pressure to get a win here, and they needed a late goal to get the points against TS Galaxy. The average attacking set-up is what we’ve come to expect of Zwane’s team this season, and it will be interesting to see if they stick to this strategy when facing a solid Pirates defence. Zwane would have watched Pirates MTN8 win and noted the danger they can pose with limited ball time – Pirates needed three shots to score three goals on Saturday and could be in the same lethal mood ahead of the final.

Pirates (right) were happy to allow Sundowns possession and sit back after taking an early lead. Attempting just 210 passes (their lowest since we have this data available, six years), the defensive structure was tested to the limits and passed. How will Jose & co. set up against Chiefs? Will they stick to the same plan that worked so well on the weekend, and look to generate dangerous moments through speed and exploitation of spaces left behind?

Opinions change as often as players take to the field – one week you’re a crisis club, the next you’re the champions-elect. But with a two-month break until the next round of league fixtures, whatever result in each of these gets here will live longest in the memory of their respective fans. The Soweto derby is such that a win for an underperforming coach will make him look better, while a loss for a coach doing well will make him look worse. Fortunately for Riveiro, he has an actual final the following week, but a win on Saturday will propel him to cult-hero status as if they’ve known him all their lives. For Zwane, this could be the biggest game yet in his coaching career.