27 February 2020, by: OptaJabu

Kaizer Chiefs v Orlando Pirates: Soweto Derby Betting Guide

When Kaizer Chiefs’ met Orlando Pirates in November 2019 during the first edition of the Soweto derby, they were in search of their first derby win in five years. They won 3-2 that afternoon to strengthen their hold on pole position, and stretch their lead over their Soweto rivals to a mammoth 15 points. They were so much better then, and Pirates were left ninth in the table after that match – 112 days later, they are now breathing down Amakhosi’s necks. 

Since that defeat, many things have changed for Pirates – and their manager being one of those. They have won more points than Chiefs (26 to 17) since then and also scored more goals (21 to 20). And now, a win for Pirates this weekend would cut the lead down to a mere three points, albeit with Pirates having played a game more. They would have to do something they have never done before, however, as they have never won seven league matches in a row in the PSL era – currently on six. We ran through some of the stats ahead of the derby.READ: Is Pirates recruitment working?

READ: Kaizer Chiefs v Orlando Pirates: Soweto Derby Combined XI

READ: 5 Interesting Soweto Derbies in the Last Decade

READ: PSL Title Race: Remaining Fixtures Analysed

READ: 50 Years of Kaizer Chiefs

Orlando Pirates (1.55) are on a good run of form under German coach Josef Zinnbauer. Since the German’s first game in charge, they are the only undefeated top-flight side. They have won the most games (seven), scored the most goals (16) and collected the most points (22). One of the reasons this run is so impressive is because only two other Pirates managers since the PSL was established in 1996 have won six games in a row (also Roy Barreto & Ruud Krol). But will that run end on Saturday? Should Pirates beat Chiefs, Josef Zinnbauer will become the first ever PSL era coach to win seven league games in a row for the Buccaneers. 

BET: PIRATES TO WIN @ 1.55

Of the 47 Soweto derby matches played in the PSL era, about 50% of them (24) have ended in a draw, with the other 23 ending in a result. In fact, no other PSL league fixture has ended in a draw as many times as this derby.

BET: DRAW @ 1.55

For the matches that have not ended in a draw, Chiefs have won 12 and Pirates 11. Will Pirates equalise, and join Chief on 12, or will Chiefs win again? A Chiefs victory would ensure they complete a league double over Pirates for just the second time since the PSL was established (also 2005/6). And guess who was the manager the last time they did that – yes, you guessed right, Ernst Middendorp. Will he win this weekend and complete another double? 

BET: CHIEFS TO WIN @ 1.70There was a time when the Soweto derby was known as a ‘draw-by’ because of 0-0 draws. The ten derbies between 2013 and 2017 featured four 0-0 draws, but since then, the last four derbies have seen both teams scoring at least once. Although they lost last week, Kaizer Chiefs set a new consecutive scoring record against Maritzburg, scoring in a club-record 15th match in a row.

On the other hand, Pirates have also scored in eleven successive league games – their best run since 2008/9 (12 games). Although both teams scored in only four of the 10 Soweto derby matches played between 2013 and 2017, they have both scored in four of the last four derbies since 2018. Will both teams extend their records? 

BET: BTTS @ 0.90With 39 goals (Chiefs) and 35 goals (Pirates) scored this season, the two sides are the best goalscorers in the division. As a matter of fact, the five goals scored in the last Soweto derby (3-2 to Chiefs) is the joint-highest in a single derby match in the PSL era, and was only the second time this has happened (also 2012). The record number of goals scored for both derby matches in a single season is eight, meaning there is no season in the PSL era where nine goals have come from both derbies. There is good value in betting that more than 3.5 goals will be scored. 

BET: OVER 3.5 GOALS @ 3.15Orlando Pirates have scored more goals in the first half of league games than any other PSL team (19), while Kaizer Chiefs have scored more goals in the second half of league games than any other PSL team (23).

BET: PIRATES OVER 1.5 IN 1ST HALF @ 1.25

That said, there has never been a team come back from a half-time losing position to win the Soweto derby. No wonder the price of that happening is set so high. For Chiefs to be losing at half-time and winning at full time (25.00), while for Pirates to come back from a halftime deficit to win in set at 24.00. 

BET: CHIEFS TO WIN 2ND HALF @ 2.15Eleven of the last 14 derby matches since 2013 have been a draw at half time, with Chiefs (2) and Pirates (1) leading at half time in the other three. Meanwhile, since losing to Chiefs in November, Pirates have been leading at half time in seven of their ten league games. Yet, Chiefs (14) have led at halftime in the derby fixture almost twice as much as Pirates (8).

BET: PIRATES TO WIN 1ST HALF @ 2.00More goals have been scored in the final 15-minutes of Soweto Derby matches than any other 15-minute period. In addition, both Chiefs (11) and Pirates (9) are log leaders when it comes to late goals. The two sides have scored more goals in the final 15 minutes of league matches this season than all other PSL sides. With more derby goals scored in the second half (49) than the first (43), late goals could be seen again. There is good value offered that the second half will be the highest-scoring half. 

BET: 2+ GOAL IN 2ND HALF @ 1.40READ: Legendary Player Battles in the Soweto Derby

READ: Kaizer Chiefs v Orlando Pirates: Soweto Derby Combined XI

READ: 5 Interesting Soweto Derbies in the Last Decade

READ: Jimmy Tau on Chiefs, Pirates & Soweto Derby

READ: Gavin Lane on the Soweto Derby

 

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