PSL Weekend Double and Value Bets

With giants like Sundowns and Kaizer Chiefs out on African duty, The Cape derby is the main focus in the PSL this coming weekend. We ran through the numbers to give you a detailed backdrop of the state of both teams and what that could mean for their clash.

15:00 – Cape Town City v Stellenbosch (Saturday)

Both teams have struggled recently, but it is Stellenbosch’s troubles that are more worrying. For one, they have not won a match in any competition this year since beating TTM 2-0 in their 2021 opener on 5 January. As a matter of fact, Stellenbosch’s current run of eight games without a win (D4 L4 all comps) is their longest run winless run since they were promoted to the top flight in 2019.

City’s struggles are not as bad, just five winless games, but they have derailed what resembled a title challenge at some point. That said, City’s problems have come when playing away from home. Four of the five matches in their winless run have taken them to Johannesburg (Loss), Pretoria (Loss) and Gqeberha (Draw*, Loss). Hopefully, returning home will be a boost for them.

Oddly, the Citizens have never lost a league game played in the month of March (P10 W7 D3 L0), the only team in PSL history to have played more than two PSL seasons that has a calendar month in which they remain unbeaten. Their success, like any team, comes in matches when they open the scoring. City have scored 63% of their goals in the first halves of games, the highest proportion of all teams. In addition, only Supersport (7) have scored more goals in the opening 15-minutes of games than the Blue & Gold Army (5).

Even in the absence of Kermit Erasmus, City have maintained their free scoring style. They are joint-top scorers this season with Supersport on 28 goals, although City have played a game less. You can count on goals whenever they are involved. The home form is even more convincing. Since the start of 2020, last year, City have scored Over 0.5 goals in 15 of the 16 league matches they have played at home. They have also scored Over 1.5 goals in half of those games (8 of the 16).

Despite struggling to find a win, Stellenbosch have not been shy in front of goals either. They have played 12 matches in all competitions since the start of December and scored Over 0.5 goals in 10 of them. Five of the six teams that have beaten them have needed to score Over 1.5 goals, with their last opponent (0-1 v TTM) the only exception.

Tuesday’s 0-0 draw was the first goalless draw Cape Town City have played out in the league since November 2019, when Riekerink’s first two games both ended 0-0. This means there were 34 successive league matches involving City that had ended with Over 0.5 goals, the longest since Wits had 37 scoring games ending in 2018, and a Top 10 PSL record.

Will we get a second successive goalless draw after so long without one? Stellies also have a similarly crazy record of seeing goals in their matches. They have seen one goalless draw in the last 15 months, with Over 0.5 goals in 34 of the 35 games they have played since November 2019.

0 – City are yet to keep a home clean sheet this season, a league record they share only with Baroka.

1 – City have lost just one of the last 49 league games in which they opened the scoring (W33 D15 since December 2017).

1 – City have lost just one of their last seven home games in all competitions (D4 L2), scoring 19 goals in that time.

72% – This season, both teams have found the net in 13 of City’s 18 league games (72%), the highest proportion of all PSL top-flight teams.
You can bet on both sides scoring here

Best Bet: CT City to win at 1.80

Value Bet: CT City to win and under 3.5 goals at 2.25

17:00 – Chippa United v Orlando Pirates (Saturday)

On Sunday afternoon, Orlando Pirates travel to newly named Gqeberha looking to close the gap at the top of the table to one point. The Buccaneers huffed and puffed against Celtic during the week, and ended up winning 1-0 thanks to Fortune Makaringe’s long range strike. However, Zinnbauer will be hoping Pirates can really build on that, looking to shake the monkey on how Pirates have won successive games only once this season (in November).

However, the Chippa they are meeting this weekend are no weaklings. The Chilli Boys have lost just one of their last nine matches in all competitions, which has included progression to the quarter-finals of the Nedbank Cup. The only defeat came against Sundowns. That said, their last outright win (excluding extra time and penalties) came on 23 January, so it’s been mostly draws.

5 – Chippa’s run of five draws in a row is their joint-longest run of successive draws as a top-flight (also 5 in a row ending October 2017).

9 – Orlando Pirates have won nine successive league matches against Chippa, their joint-longest winning run against a single opponent in PSL history (9 also v Arrows). A win will set a new Pirates record for successive wins against a single PSL opponent.

Best Bet: Pirates to win at 1.90

Value Bet: Under 1.5 goals at 2.50