PSL Goalscoring Trends Q1

The last international break of 2024 has just passed, providing us with another opportunity to review some interesting developments in the PSL so far. Just over 20% of the league season (50 games) has been completed. All teams have points on the board, and all teams have scored and/or conceded at least one goal, yet only one team remains unbeaten in the league this season: the log leaders, Orlando Pirates. Conversely, only one team has yet to win a game – TS Galaxy.

In the 50 league games played so far, we have seen:

91 goals scored

72 inside the box (79% of the total)

19 outside the box (21% of the total)

Another 40 games are scheduled to be played before the turn of the year (31st December), which will bring the completed games percentage to 38%. The second half of the season will see teams race to complete the remaining 62% of the campaign, along with Nedbank Cup matches and a March international break. A hectic five months of football action lies ahead. Will this impact the quality of football and, in turn, the creation of chances and goals? Only time will tell.

One Step Back: Where Do The Shots Come From?

Below is a shot map visual for all teams, highlighting the shooting volume and accuracy of the 16 teams in the league. Teams are ordered by shots taken to date. You may need to zoom in to find your favorite team.

League leaders Orlando Pirates sit at the top of the table with a three-point lead. The Bucs have taken the most shots of all teams and created the highest xG (11.75). They are the only team to have reached double figures in xG so far this season. However, their schedule will become more demanding as they also compete in the CAF Champions League group stages during November, December, and early January 2025. In terms of accuracy, their 40 shots off target are the highest in the league, suggesting a lack of conviction in key moments.

Despite their Cup final defeat, Sundowns have maintained their ruthlessness in front of goal, scoring the most league goals (15) of any team. They rank fifth in shots taken but continue to demonstrate remarkable clinical efficiency with a shot conversion rate of 23%—well above the league average of 10%. This rate has already dropped by 3% since the October international break and could decrease further in the coming weeks and months. Like Pirates, Sundowns will also compete in the CAF Champions’ League group stages.

Kaizer Chiefs, despite their early-season struggles, have taken the second-most shots in the league, behind their Soweto rivals. With the league’s average conversion rate currently at 9%, the Glamour Boys’ lack of sharpness in front of goal and defensive lapses have cost them valuable points in recent games.

Stellenbosch and Sekhukhune United, currently 4th and 5th on the league table, have also produced impressive shot volumes. However, both teams still have work to do in converting these opportunities into goals.

In a previous edition, we noted that teams such as Royal AM, SuperSport United, Magesi, and TS Galaxy were struggling to convert chances. Now, other teams, including Cape Town City FC and Marumo Gallants, have joined this group, with both recording a discouraging shot conversion rate of just 6%.

The league average conversion rate rarely strays far from 10%, both locally and in global football. To climb higher up the table, teams need both volume and accuracy. For instance, Golden Arrows had the second-highest shot conversion rate last season (12%), but their low shot volume (ranking 15th) offset their finishing efficiency.