PSL Betting Tips: OptaJabu’s Weekend Picks

Mamelodi Sundowns and Moroka Swallows lead the DSTV Premiership heading into the weekend with both clubs on 21 points. Masandawana face Baroka in a match you would expect them to win while Swallows get readt for the ‘Original Soweto Derby’ as they face Orlando Pirates.

OptaJabu combed through the numbers and provides tips for the weekend ahead.

17:00 – Kaizer Chiefs v Maritzburg

Ernst Middendorp returns to face Kaizer Chiefs this weekend when his new side Maritzburg travel to Johannesburg to take on his old employers. Dismissed after narrowly losing out on the 2019/20 title, the German would find pleasure in victory on Saturday, especially given that it would mean Maritzburg leapfrog Chiefs on the table. Already, seven points from eight games is Chiefs’ worst ever start to a PSL season, and their home form has not helped.

The only win Chiefs managed at home this season was in the MTN8 quarter-finals, and that was against Maritzburg. Moreover, Chiefs have lost just one of the last ten league games played against The Team of Choice since 2014/15, drawing three and winning the other six.

In fact, since the title win in 2014/15, Chiefs have won more league matches against Maritzburg than against any other side (6).

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While Ernst Middendorp may be at a “new” club, the fact of the matter is that he has been here before. This is his fourth spell at the KZN club, having joined the club in 2009, 2012 and 2015. He is also familiar with Chiefs, with two spells at Naturena, joining in 2005 and also in 2018. More importantly, he’s come across Chiefs ten times as a Maritzburg coach, but the record is not great.

Chiefs will be more optimistic after qualifying for the Champions League group stages this week. A clean sheet across two legs (including a bruising experience in Angola) means they have conceded just one goal in 270 minutes of action. That could be something to build on for Gavin
Hunt, who has had a turbulent start at the club.

That said, Maritzburg have finally gotten the “winless” monkey off their back. The win over Celtic last weekend brought to an end a run of 14 league matches without a win, what was their worst such run as a top-flight club (14 also in 2018/19). They’ve lost just one of the four games under Middendorp. It’s not exactly a revival, but the positive signs are there.

Match Facts

0 – Chiefs are the only side yet to win a home league game this season (D3 L1).

1 – Middendorp has won just one of the 10 matches he has overseen as a Maritzburg coach against Chiefs (D3 L6). Yet, three of the last six have ended in a draw.

2 – Maritzburg have scored two goals in the first half in each of their last two league games, as many times as they managed in the previous 103 games.

Value Bet: Draw

Best Bet: BTTS

18:00 – Orlando Pirates v Swallows FC

Orlando Pirates host in-form Swallows FC on Sunday, looking to regain some momentum they’ve lost in the league. One win in the last four league games is in stark contrast to their Cup form where they have won five in five this season. The loss to Sundowns was the Buccaneers’ first defeat in eleven league matches and their first defeat of the season. At home they have remained hard to beat.

To say Swallows FC are having a good season would be an understatement. The Birds are flying as high as the best teams in PSL history have managed, and should they keep up the momentum, they are certain to break many records.

The previous highest total for a newly promoted side at the same stage has been 16 points (Tembisa Classic 00/01 & Wits 06/07), while the record for 10 games is 19 points (Wits 06/07). Already Swallows are past that total, with a game to spare.

With five goals conceded so far, Swallows boast the joint-best defence in the league, tied with Sundowns. The two goals conceded against Cape Town City was the first time since March last year that the Dube Birds conceded two goals in a game. Ironically, Cape Town City were also the only side to have scored two league goals against Josef Zinnbauer’s Orlando Pirates. He’s been around for over a year. We could be in for a tight match.

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The two teams are slow starters, with both yet to score a goal in the opening 15-minutes of matches this season. However, they are two of the top-scorers for late goals, with Junaid Sait’s 76th minute goal in Swallows victory over Cape Town City another example of their tirelessness.

The game against Cape Town City was the first game this season where Swallows scored two goals in the first-half. It was also the first game where Swallows went into half-time winning. They have been level at half-time in every single match before the last one.

Match Facts

1 – Pirates lost one league game last year, the joint-fewest of all sides involved in 2019/20 and 2020/21 (Supersport also 1).

4 – Swallows & Pirates have scored four goals each in the final 15-minutes of league matches this season. Only Supersport (6) have more in that period of games.

7 – Pirates have conceded just seven goals in the league this season, with Swallows and Sundowns (5 each) the only sides that have conceded less.

21 – Swallows FC have won 21 points in their opening nine #DSTVPrem matches this season, becoming only the 12th side to reach 21+ points at this stage of a top-flight season in PSL history.

Value Bet: Under 1.5 goals or Draw

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals

18:00 – Baroka FC v Mamelodi Sundowns

Table-toppers Mamelodi Sundowns face Baroka on Saturday afternoon looking to continue their impressive form. The defending champions are unbeaten in 11 games in all competitions and are the league’s top scorers as well.

21 points in the opening nine league games is Sundowns’ joint-best start to a 30-game PSL season (21pts also in 2010/11), and their joint-2nd best overall in the PSL era (25pts in 1999/00).

Yet, Sundowns have only won once in the last five matches against Baroka in all competitions, scoring two goals (including one penalty). Even that one win was against 10 men. Baroka have already won two home games, one less than their total last season, and could put up a fight once again.

With 11 goals in the first half of games, Sundowns are second only to Cape Town City (13) in that category. Downs have failed to score only once this season, and on top of that, they have opened the scoring in five successive games.

Value Bet: Sundowns to score over 1.5 goals

Best Bet: Sundowns to win