PSL Betting Guide and Stats by OptaJabu

The Soweto Derby headlines an exciting weekend of DStv Premiership action and OptaJabu is back with a PSL Betting Guide. They preview the weekend’s top-flight action by looking at the historic and present stats.

Orlando Pirates v Kaizer Chiefs

The biggest game of the weekend, month and sadly, the last big game before a two-month break. Pirates will be pleased with their progression to the MTN8 final, after a calculated performance that saw them cede tons of possession to Sundowns, but striking with the few opportunities they had. The Buccaneers’ defence has been their strong point this season, and they’ll be looking to set up another solid display. They are hosts to Arthur Zwane’s stuttering Chiefs, who are winless in three, and (in xG terms) have the most open defence in the division. ChiThus bunch of Chiefs players have enjoyed this fixture recently, however, winning five of the last six in the league, including each of the last three. None of these teams has ever won 4 league derbies in a row.

24 – Pirates v Chiefs has seen 24 draws since 96/97, more than any other fixture in PSL history.

Suggested Bet: Chiefs win or a draw

Suggested Bet: Under 1.5 goals

Royal AM v Sundowns

Yes, Maritzburg are probably the worst team at the moment, but just how good were Sundowns on Wednesday night? They blew their hosts away in a five-goal salvo, notching up their highest xG of the season, and second highest since the start of last season. It was a result that set some club records including the biggest away win and the biggest first win for a new Sundowns coach (you get the drift). Yet, Sundown’s defence has a tendency of letting the opposition into dangerous spaces recently. Although the win may be a stretch, Royal AM getting at least one goal isn’t. They have scored in eight of their 11 matches this season, the 4th best record in the league, even if their defence remains a weakness:

2 – Royal AM have kept just 2 clean sheets all season, the joint-fewest in the league (Stellenbosch also 2).

Suggested Bet: Sundowns win/draw

You can bet on both teams to score

Marumo Gallants v Cape Town City

City have actually been decent this season, and have been unlucky not to score in many games. Laduma Analytics’ Expected Points table has them sitting in 5th in the league, and are ranked as the unluckiest team in the division. They create as many chances as anyone, taking the 2nd most shots in the league and boasting the second-highest xG. Tinkler’s men just haven’t had the rub of the green on several occasions, a complete opposite to late last season when everything they touched seemed to turn to goals. A trip away to Marumo Gallants could not have come at a better time, as their hosts are on an incredible run of nine consecutive home draws.

0 – Gallants are the only team yet to win a home league game this season.

Suggested Bet: Draw or City win

You can bet on Under 2.5 goals

SuperSport v Swallows FC

The last game before the international break sees SuperSport United host Swallows FC on Sunday evening. This looks like a tough task for Swallows, who are still in search of a first away win (one of three teams with that record). Not only are SuperSport on a three-game winning run, but they also have the second-best home record, only behind Sundowns in terms of points. They are also scoring for fun (2nd best on total goals), and also fourth best on Expected Goals, with Bradley Grobler enjoying his best form in a while.

2012 – SuperSport have won each of their last three league games, and haven’t won four on the trot since April 2012.

One could see that as their ceiling, another as a marker for how good they are. We’ll go for the latter.

Suggested Bet: SuperSport win/draw

Suggested Bet: Over 2.5 goals