PSL Tactics: Nurkovic the Key for Chiefs by Laduma Analytics

Finally, there is some positive news for the Amakhosi faithful after two league wins in a row. It should come as no surprise that the Serbian hitman Samir Nurkovic has been at the heart of Chiefs’ resurgence.

Laduma Analytics takes a tactical dive into Chief’s struggles and the importance of Nurkovic in their starting XI.

The Worst Start to a Season

After ten games last season, Kaizer Chiefs had their third highest total in their PSL history (25 points). After ten games this season, Chiefs had the lowest points total in their PSL history. Last season, they went on to beat Pirates in the 11th game, winning the Soweto derby for the first time in five years. In the end, a title that looked destined for Naturena eluded them, and things have not been the same since.

One wonders how much of a psychological blow the loss of the title may have been. Coupled with other setbacks – the shortened off-season (there were just 43 days between their final game of the 2019/20 season and the first of 2020/21), the ongoing transfer ban, and new coaching staff, it’s fair to say circumstances have been unusual.

As seen above, their running points per game captured last week (yellow) places them below the line for safety (red), meaning based on historical PSL averages, Chiefs were performing like a team destined for relegation. Until they won two games on the trot this past week.

Nurkovic Returns

A glimmer of hope appeared this past week – Samir Nurkovic returned from injury. For the first time in a while, Chiefs grabbed the headlines for good reasons, beating AmaZulu and then Cape Town City in the space of four days. All of a sudden, the picture looks very different. It makes sense that the goalscoring return of Samir Nurkovic was the main talking point during the week, with the Serbian finding the net against AmaZulu, and providing a brilliant assist against City. With 13 goals in the league last season, he was a Golden Boot contender until Chiefs wobbled in the bio-bubble. His absence has been conspicuous.

Nurkovic the Solution to Chiefs’ Bluntness

What Nurkovic brings to the table is important for what Chiefs want to achieve. The goal threat and accuracy in front of goal is something Chiefs have missed. Last season, four of every 10 shots of his ended up on target (slightly better than Grobler’s 38%). He also converts 16% of shots into goals. In other terms, he scores with every sixth shot. The centrality of his shots in prime locations make this possible, and having him at the end of moves will be a huge sigh of relief for Gavin Hunt.

Chiefs Bluntness Without Nurkovic

Without Nurkovic, Chiefs averaged 0.8 goals per game this season. That tells a story of its own. Yet, the goalscoring problems had already started in the bio-bubble, as Chiefs have averaged a measly 0.88 goals per game since the bio-bubble. One standout from this season, Chiefs have been struggling to convert their shots. Above, the wide shots (grey) have contributed to a 30% shot accuracy. Worse still is the 7% goal conversion, which means they have needed 15 shots to score a goal is further evidence of their bluntness in front of goal.

That said, they have conceded the opening goal in six games already this season (this happened only 10 times all of last season), so some shots may have come in desperation. We can see a large number of shots outside the box as well. The return of Nurkovic could be the perfect panacea to their ills.

The Loss of Billiat

In the absence of Nurkovic, Khama Billiat took a leading role. With six goal involvements (five assists and one goal) in all competitions, Billiat has been Chiefs’ most fruitful player this season. He was involved in 67% of Chiefs’ goals before injury struck, laying him off for two months. The gain of Nurkovic offset by the loss of Billiat could prove to be another setback for Gavin Hunt.

While Chiefs have shoehorned some players into the wings, Billiat has done well playing wide, a position he is familiar with. His attacking actions heatmap is shown above.

Hunt the Escapologist?

After winning the title with Wits in 2016/17, Gavin Hunt’s Bidvest won just two games in the first half of a stormy 2017/18, before going on a nine game unbeaten run that ensured safety. Chiefs obviously have targets beyond just avoiding relegation, but they have to start somewhere, and if there is one man you want to get you out of a rut, it’s a man who has been in a similar situation before. The two wins this week show what the squad is capable of, and even if most of the younger players are unproven at a high level, a man with two decades of top-flight coaching is just who you want at the wheel.