MTN8 Quarter-Final Betting Preview By OptaJabu

Exactly one year ago this week, the PSL returned from lockdown to resume football in the bio-bubble. A year later, the PSL returns from a season break to resume football – not in a bio-bubble, but still without fans. Trends and narratives are yet to unfold in the new season, but there is a lot of history to go by, with the fixtures and personnel involved this weekend presenting interesting storylines. As usual, we previewed the weekend’s action of the 21st edition of the Top 8 tournament.

Orlando Pirates v Swallows FC

Swallows will be featuring in their first ever MTN* tournament since joining the top-flight last season. A first season that proved memorable. They were one point away from equalling the points record for a newly promoted PSL side (Free State Stars won 45 points in 2005/6). In addition, the Birds were just one goal away from becoming the first team in PSL history to score in every away game of a top-flight season. However, that record would have painted a rosy picture on a rather grim run of form.

2 – Swallows won just 2 of their last 21 games in all competitions last season, losing two and drawing the other 17.

In a knockout game where a draw will not be enough to directly progress, a new set of tactics may need to be undertaken.

Suggested Bet: Pirates win/Draw

Value Bet: Draw or Under 1.5 goals

Golden Arrows v Supersport United

Given that Supersport ended fifth, it’s easy to forget how difficult the second half of their campaign was last season. Indeed, Supersport’s form since mid-January resembled a relegation team. Kaitano Tembo’s men won just four of their last 20 league games in 2020/21, the fewest wins for the club in that period of a season in 24 years (they won 3 of the last 20 games in the inaugural PSL season in 1996/97). That said, they are renowned Cup specialists and are particularly familiar with this tournament, winning it with Tembo at the helm in 2019.

20 – Since their first Top8 appearance in 2001/2 (featuring a Kaitano Tembo goal), Supersport are the only club to have appeared in all 20 Top8 tournaments. 

But that was a long time ago.

As a coach, Tembo has won just once in seven matches against Arrows, including defeats in each of the last three. His team’s last away win came in January, so expectations may need to be tempered. However, the best time to visit Arrows could be now, immediately after the departure of their head coach.

Suggested Bet: Under 2.5

Suggested Bet: Under 1.5

Mamelodi Sundowns v Kaizer Chiefs (Sunday)

The biggest game of the weekend will see Sundowns host Kaizer Chiefs on Sunday. The defending league champions know that they have a mixed record in the competition, having previously lifted this title only once (2007/8). Chiefs, on the other hand, have won more Top 8 titles than any other PSL side (4). They could also have their tails up. Despite losing the CAF Champions League final & only beating Pirates by penalties in the Carling Cup friendly, they will see themselves as African Cup finalists instead of a side that finished eighth in the league.

20% – Sundowns have won only 3 of 15 previous Cup ties against Chiefs (D8 L4), a 20% win ratio. Moroka Swallows (0%) are the only side against which they have a worse win rate (min. 2 games).

It’s déja vu for Stuart Baxter in his second spell at Chiefs, having faced Sundowns in his first domestic game in the 2012 MTN8 Quarterfinals during his first spell. Despite losing 4-1 then, Chiefs went on to win the PSL title – an offer that would be hard to refuse now. In fact, this will be the 16th meeting between Chiefs and Sundowns in Cup competitions, making it Sundowns’ joint-most played Cup fixtures (16 also v Pirates & Supersport).

Suggested Bet: Sundowns to win

Value Bet: Sundowns win to zero

AmaZulu v Cape Town City (Sunday)

The last fixture of the weekend sees Benni McCarthy take on his old club Cape Town City in Durban on Sunday evening. Although they were formed in 2016, Cape Town City have been regulars in the MTN 8, winning the competition in 2018/19. With 13 games, they are already in the Top10 of clubs for fixtures played in the competition (including BP & SAA competitions), and could even overtake Bloemfontein Celtic if they go all the way to the final. On the other hand, AmaZulu have only played four matches in the Top 8, not winning any, despite once progressing on penalties in the 2009 quarter-finals.

That was then. Now, it is a battle of the coaches. Head-to-head McCarthy & Tinkler are inseparable, winning one match apiece, drawing two and seeing their teams score four goals each when they clash. They also both have one MTN8 title each. Tinkler has the upper hand having won the 2017 MTN8 final against his former teammate, so revenge could be on the cards for the AmaZulu gaffer.

Suggested Bet: Under 2.5

Value Bet: Draw or correct score 0-0