MTN8 Semi-Finals Preview: Who Will Make The Finals?

The battles for the two places in the 2024 MTN8 finals reach their peak this coming weekend as Sundowns and Stellenbosch (Saturday), followed by Orlando Pirates & Cape Town City (Sunday) lock horns. Both legs are finely poised, with very little to separate between the sides. Indeed, we could even get to witness extra time and penalties for the first time in five years. But come Sunday evening, the winners and the losers will be known. We preview the numbers behind the second legs in this piece.

Saturday: Orlando Pirates v Cape Town City

The Bucaneers allowed Cape Town City to come back and rescue a draw in the first leg, but they will be confident of winning in front of their home crowd. On the bright side, even a 0-0 draw will be enough to see them through. But knowing the lofty standards coach Jose Riveiro has set recently, they won’t be doing the permutations and calculations ahead of time. One has to go back three years for the last time Pirates conceded two goals in a home Cup game (vs Swallows in the 2021 MTN8 quarters). So, City will have to be at their best to stand a chance here.

2 – This is only the second time that Pirates have drawn the first leg away from home in an MTN8 semi-final (also 2012). On that occasion, they lost the second leg 3-0 to SuperSport.

A similar scenario could unfold here unless Pirates get a hold of the game in the first half, something they struggled to do on Wednesday. City’s experienced players like Haashim Domingo, Kamogelo Mokotjo, and Fortune Makaringe led by example as City grabbed the initiative, and they may be called to step up one more time. Eric Tinkler will look at his last two away results and be inspired to repeat the blueprint. His side ended Sundown’s unbeaten run on the final day of last season and then overcame Sekhukhune in the quarter-finals this season by the same scoreline (1-0).  If they hold out in the first half, they have a good chance of nicking a scrappy affair late on. Tinkler will take that:

1 – Eric Tinkler will be coaching his 15th game against Orlando Pirates, and he has won just once before (P13 W1 D7 L6).

Sunday: Stellenbosch v Sundowns

The Maroons are proudly taking a slender advantage to the second leg, following their gritty 1-0 win in the first. They will be keen to continue their fine start to the season, having won four in four so far across two competitions. Playing their home game at the Moses Mabhida and away from their base may have worked against Nsingizini Hotspurs, but Sundowns will be infinitely tougher than the Swati outfit. While playing away from their fans is a disadvantage, this will be their third game at the same stadium in three weeks, so at least they may have some familiarity with the terrain. But they’ll have to do something they have never done before.

5 – Stellies will be looking to win five consecutive games for the first time since their 2019 promotion to the top-flight.

Their visitors have failed to score in 210 minutes of competitive action this season, despite pumping 35 shots at goal in these games. They had 24 shots in the game against Polokwane City but failed to create a single big chance (defined as “situations where a player is reasonably expected to score, usually in a one-on-one or from very close range when the ball has a clear path to goal & there’s low to moderate pressure on the shooter). Against Stellies, Downs only managed 11 shots, but three of these were big chances. They did not maximize on those, but the latter will please Manqoba Mngqithi more than 20+ wishful shots. He’ll need more of the same for his team to do something that has never been done before:

0 – In MTN8 history, no team has ever lost the first leg of the semi-final and come back to progress to the final (14 previous occasions).