By the Numbers: Manqoba Mngqithi’s record at Sundowns

The reason for the restructuring was cited as a drop in standards, an echo of a similar announcement just over two years ago when the trio of coaches was disbanded to give Rulani Mokwena the status of sole head coach.

This time, the difference is that Manqoba Mngqithi will leave the club altogether, following a brief leading spell. Having been in charge since the beginning of the season, he leaves the team at the top of the table, with a decent win rate.

19 – games for Mngqithi, the fewest by a Sundowns coach since Ian Gorowa in 2010/11 (13)
8 – league games for Mngqithi, the fewest by a Downs coach since Khabo Zondo in 2004 (8)
68% – win rate for Manqoba Mngqithi (P19 W13 D2 L4 all comps)
64% – win rate for his predecessor Rulani Mokwena (P91 W58 D26 L7 all comps)
4 – domestic games lost by Sundowns this season
2 – domestic games lost by Sundowns last season (excl. penalty shootouts; considered draws)

The Cup defeats

If one result may have jeopardized his position, it is the Cup final defeat to Magesi. Sundowns were heavily favoured to win the Carling Knockout final last month and even managed to take the lead in that game. However, they allowed the underdogs to fight back and win the trophy, leaving a bitter taste in the mouth of the Sundowns faithful. In addition, the double defeat to Stellenbosch in the MTN8 semi-finals was also seismic – both results were rare from a Sundowns and overall history perspective.

2 – teams in PSL history to beat Sundowns home & away in a two-legged domestic Cup (Moroka Swallows 2000 Rothmans Cup & Stellenbosch this season).
1 – team in PSL history to lose to a newly promoted side in a League Cup final (Sundowns this season)
1 – team in PSL history to lose to a newly promoted side in a major Cup final (Sundowns this season)

The Underlying Numbers

Besides the Cup results, the league performances may have also been considered. Sundowns are top of the table, with the most goals (18) and the best goal difference (+14). They have also conceded the second-fewest goals (4).

But that does not necessarily mean they have the best attack and second-best defence. According to Expected Goals (which assigns the probability of each shot being scored) and is a better measure of team performance, Sundowns have the 4th best attack.

That alone is not a significant problem but combined with having the 8th-best defense (based on 7.81 xG conceded), you start to see how this may raise concerns. Last season, Downs were 1st in the league for both.

Trading in the red

The Rolling Average xG chart below shows how the two metrics combined look in tandem. The chart maps out the quality of chances created against those conceded – green shaded areas show periods where the net difference between a teams attacking output and defensive leakage is positive. The bigger the green-shaded area, the better the team is performing overall. The opposite applies to red.

The sample size may be small (just 8 games for Mngqithi at the moment), but there is more predictive utility in using these underlying numbers than the actual position on the league table. Over the last two seasons, Downs have traded in the red on two occasions. The first is around April, which can be assigned to drops in intensity after winning the title. The second is in October last month, which would have pinged on the board’s radar as a red flag. There are signs of getting out of that slump recently, but it may have been a little too late.

The damaging Cup exits are more obvious pain points, but the league performances (shown by this rolling xG) were equally undoing and indicative of that aforementioned drop in standards.