Cape Town City v Orlando Pirates Preview by OptaJabu

Cape Town City host Orlando Pirates this Saturday in a league encounter. The two teams are currently in the exact same positions that they finished at the end of last season, but both will have higher ambitions in 2020/21 than a Top 8 finish and the CAF Confederations Cup place respectively.

While the history between the two sides is brief, it has been eventful with at least one goal scored in every game they have played since the first one ended 0-0 in 2016. After Cape Town City effectively ‘denied’ Pirates a league title towards the end of the 2018/19 season, the narrative around this fixture has taken a new twist. We previewed the coming game, looking at how their last encounter played out, what has transpired since then and one key player

The Last Game

The sides met in their first game of the season, with Pirates winning their MTN8 quarter-final 1-0. That match also included an early red card for the Citizens, which contributed to how the game played out. The Expected Goals shot map below shows the location and value of shots taken by both sides in the last game. The bigger the circle, the higher the probability of that shot becoming a goal.

A goal and a man down within half an hour, The Citizens were limited to (desperately) taking shots from distance. Scoring against Pirates is already a difficult task (only one side has scored more than one goal in a game against Josef Zinnbauer’s Pirates in 25 games). When you’re a man and a goal down in the first half-hour, the task is made that much harder. Pirates themselves had good chances, could and probably should have scored more, something which has been the story of their season.

Pirates Efficientcy in Front of Goal?

While six goals in five games is a decent return (the most goals for a Pirates side at this stage of a season in four seasons), it pales in comparison to Sundowns’ 12 goals in the same number of games. The Buccaneers have also been rescued by substitutes in each of the last three matches, with goals in the final 15 minutes usually covering up for what may be seen as an inefficient attack.

The Shot and Creation map above shows both the good and the bad when it comes to the Pirates’ shot creation. The top left section shows shot location and distance from goal, highlighting the centrality of the endpoint of Pirates attacks, even though some shots are taken from too far. The lower part of the chart emphasizes the location of passes into the box, indicating creativity down the wings, mostly on the left-wing.

The top right shows that roughly one in every three shots end up on target on target (35% shot on target percentage). What may be concerning is the 10% goal conversion rate, which means they are scoring one in every ten shots that they take. In contrast, Sundowns convert a league high 21% of their shots into goals. With roughly the same number of shots, the defending champions are twice as efficient in front of goal, but this will probably tail off as the games pile up.

The sample size is still small and the goal conversion rate is quite similar to Pirates last season, but Sundowns are the benchmark if they want to compete. An attacking performance like the one delivered in the MNT8 semi-final should be the norm and not the exception. After all, the defensive structure should be something to build on, not merely something to rely on.

100 Games for Thabo Nodada

Although the match has been moved to Stellenbosch, no side has won more games (8) and more points (26) in home matches than City this year. The Citizens are also unbeaten in five home matches against Orlando Pirates, winning thrice and drawing twice since 2017 in all competitions. To continue that good record, they will first have to keep all 11 men on the field, as the last two games against Pirates have seen a red card each for City.

Thabo Nodada and Tariq Fielies will be celebrating 100 appearances on Saturday. A brace for Nodada in the last home game, and a goal in the first game between the sides last season means he could be the man to watch this Saturday.

His pass map from the last game against AmaZulu shows how he can dictate play, highlighting the location and direction of his passes. Deployed on the right side of a midfield trio, Nodada has the freedom to spray passes across the park and could cause serious problems for The Buccaneers, if he is given too much license to roam.