By the Numbers: DStv Premiership

Laduma Analytics takes us through some of the underlying DStv Premiership numbers from this weekend’s action.

Richards Bay v Sundowns

Mamelodi Sundowns continued their dominant display in the league with a win over fellow high-flying side Richards Bay on Friday evening. With 15 points from their last 5 games, Rulani Mokwena has brought back the standard at Sundowns and returned faith to his employers that he is up to the task of leading Masandawana forward. Even the points tally after 15 games (halfway through the league season) tells its own story.

Based on the previous seasons, Downs have the same number of points as this stage last season and even more points than at each stage of the previous three seasons – all seasons where they were crowned league champions.

Similarly, as during the week in the win against Swallows FC – the possession numbers are worth mentioning.

34:34 – Minutes of possession for Sundowns in this game, the 6th most in a game this season yet the increase is noticeable (in data) since the management change.

643 – passes attempted by Sundowns, their fourth most in a league game this season

569 – successful passes by Sundowns, their fourth-highest total in a league game this season

And it is not just futile possession. Sundowns were very intentional with the ball.

64 – entries into the opposition half in this game, matching their average total for the season to date

51 – entries into the opposition third in this game, above their average of 45 in league games this season

23 – entries into the opposition box in this game, above their average of 19 entries in league games this season

They were also successful in converting the possession into chances with even fewer shots (16) than in their previous two games (18 each against Swallows FC and Orlando Pirates).

2.3 – their second-highest xG total for the league campaign to date (highest came in the 5-0 win over Maritzburg in October 2022)

Defensively, Sundowns are also stacking up positive numbers, both on the individual and the team level. Clean sheets (11) are becoming a platform under Sundowns and we can see in the data how and why. They conceded 1.18 xG against Richards Bay – the first time they have conceded above 1 xGA (in the league) since SuperSport beat them in early September.

Kaizer Chiefs v Sekhukhune United

Saturday evening’s 53rd birthday celebration was one to be forgotten about for AmaKhosi fans. Despite the visitors spoiling the party, coach Arthur Zwane mentioned that whilst he was disappointed, he remained positive for the chances that his team did create.

10 – the number of chances Chiefs had in the game

20 – the number of shots taken by Kaizer Chiefs. This was their join-second highest total for a league game this season (21 coming against TS Galaxy in mid-October)

5 – the number of shots that hit the target – their fourth lowest of the league season to date.

In their game against Sekhukhune United they created 1.49 xG, a value close to their season average of 1.69 xG per game at present. It is the conversion in front of goal that is worrying for this Chiefs attack – the ability to convert and finish the chances that they are creating. The chances are there yet the players are not finishing them. 

From a chance creation perspective, the month of October was very fruitful for Zwane and the team. There was a big upturn in their ability to create lots of quality chances – 36% of all xG was created in October alone. In those five league games, they created 9.3 xG and scored 6 goals (minus the three penalties vs Stellenbosch FC).

Cape Town City FC v Orlando Pirates

Orlando Pirates are deep inside a goal-scoring drought that they somehow cannot get out of. The Bucs are now the joint-third lowest (10) goalscorers in the league (only TS Galaxy and Maritzburg United have less – 8 goals). With all the firepower up front, the mid-season break, the extra signings, it has to be a worry for coach Riverio, the management and his players – never mind the fans.

On a positive note, possession and the passing game has increased in the two month break. 

33.57 – the minutes of posession for Pirates (the highest total for the league season to date – only twice previously did they go above 30 minutes in 2022/23).

657 – passes vs CT City – the highest of the league season to date and the first time since early May 2022 that they crossed the 600 passes attempted mark.

Keeping a team like CT City at home to 37% possession is impressive in it’s own right but it has to come with conviction and clarity. Against Cape Town City FC, the Bucs again did what they have been doing all season long – come out the block fast and score an early goal. Only to not score again and put themselves under pressure for the remainder of the game. 

Their game in the Mother City again displayed a key issue – no second half league goal has yet been scored by this Bucs team this season. It’s down to a lack of trying, the quantity of shots and chances is there – the issue is rather the quality.

14 – number of shots taken by Orlando Pirates with 50% of them hitting the target (7).

5 – shots on target vs CT City

34% – shot on target conversion rate – close to league average

0.66 – the xG total vs CT City.

The Bucs are in danger of slipping below 1 xG per game very soon which could further illustrate their problems of creating chances to score. The drop between the average xG total now to the end of last season is frightening.

For context this season, there have been 10 games where Orlando Pirates had a higher xG figure than the opposition in games, yet also 5 occasions where the opposition had a higher xG figure than Pirates.

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