Baroka v Kaizer Chiefs Betting Guide by OptaJabu

Kaizer Chiefs face Baroka looking to avenge last season’s agonising ‘title decider’ that did not go in their favour, and probably still haunts them until today. It was the corresponding match against Baroka in the bio-bubble where Chiefs dropped crucial points on the final day of the season handing the title to Sundowns. That Sundowns have remained unbeaten since then shows how fortunes can change drastically with just one major swing of results. We threw some numbers together to bring you a bit more context ahead of Chiefs’ revenge clash. Maybe this is the fixture that could reverse the “curse” they have endured since then.

379 – Kaizer Chiefs spent 379 days at the top of the table last season, alongside Wits (12), Baroka (5), Polokwane City (3) until Sundowns overtook them in the last 30 minutes.

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That said, the Chiefs camp have actually enjoyed a largely satisfying run, qualifying for the CAF Champions League quarter-finals and beating Orlando Pirates in the space of two weeks. There have been a few moments this season where Gavin Hunt’s men prove they can cope with adversity, and they are currently enjoying one of those:

7 – Kaizer Chiefs are currently on a run of seven games unbeaten (Won 3 Drew 4 in all competitions), their longest run without defeat under Gavin Hunt.

They have only lost once in the last 10 games, and even if six of them have been drawn, the signs of an upturn in fortunes are there.

While last season’s corresponding fixture was a title decider (albeit between Chiefs and Sundowns), this season’s clash is also a type of decider. Only that, this time we’re more concerned with which of these two sides will be better placed for a Top eight finish at the end of the season. That’s how close the two sides are. Baroka and Chiefs are currently just separated by one point, and victory for the home side will help them leapfrog Chiefs to ninth. The two have even scored an equal number of goals in the league this season (21-21).

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Baroka themselves have lost just one of their last five matches in the league, but they are also hampered by draws – three of their last 5 games have been stalemates.

The last time Chiefs played a league game after returning from a CAF trip so soon, they managed to beat Pirates 1-0, but they had just gone to Angola, another Southern African country. This will be the first time they come back from a West African tie straight into playing an away league game. Returning from Guinea, and immediately heading to the north of the country will not have been Gavin Hunt’s ideal schedule.

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1 – Chiefs have lost just once in the last 15 matches away to Polokwane based opponents, winning five and drawing the other nine. Again, a case of many draws.

Gavin Hunt’s joint-biggest win at Wits came against Baroka (5-0), but you’d be hard pressed to find signs of a repeat here. The last few matches in all competitions between the sides read like binary code, as they have ended 1-1, 1-1, 1-0, 1-0, 1-1, 1-0.

While it’s hard to see where the goals may come from, it may be easier to sense when they will come, when you consider that the two sides lead the league for proportion of goals scored in the second half, with both sides netting 71% of their goals after the break (15 out of 21).

Plus, Baroka have this obsession with conceding late goals. In the opening 15-minutes of matches, Baroka are as good as Sundowns – both sides have conceded one early goal all season, the lowest of all sides. It’s later in the game that the floodgates start to open.

16 – Baroka have conceded 16 goals in the final 15-minutes of matches this season. No other side has conceded more than 10 in that period of games.

This includes nine goals conceded from the 90th minute onwards.