Bafana are in the driving seat in Group C, despite off-field mishaps

There are off-field issues that threaten to derail their qualification campaign, particularly the news of a potential points deduction for fielding an ineligible player.

Even if that were to materialise (there are many legalities involved), Bafana will qualify if they simply win all their remaining matches. By The Numbers is a statistical review of Bafana’s international week.

Hugo Broos impact

Bafana have accumulated 13+ points from their first six qualifying games for the second consecutive qualification campaign under Hugo Broos. They also had 13 in the 2022 qualifiers, although they were knocked out after six games. You have to go back over two decades (to the 2002 qualifying campaign) for the last time Bafana had more points from 6 games (16 points then). It’s been an impressive campaign, in the middle of an impressive year for the team.

18 – games unbeaten for Bafana (W9 D9)
12 – Bafana’s previous best run under Broos (Sept 2022 to November 2023)
1 – National teams across the world with a longer unbeaten run
18 – games unbeaten for Spain (=Bafana)
20 – games unbeaten for Senegal

Matchday 5: Bafana v Lesotho

Bafana have taken the games to their opponents in this international break, starting when we hosted Lesotho last week Friday in Polokwane. The second-half goals, when they came, were overdue and deserved for their dominance. In the first half against Lesotho alone, Bafana took eight shots, creating three big chances, but failed to score from any. In the second half, Rele Mofokeng and Jayden Adams were less wasteful, converting their chances with confidence.

18 – shots by Bafana vs Lesotho, their 2nd most in a game during this campaign
8 – shots on target vs Lesotho, their joint-most in a game during this campaign
7 – big chances for Bafana vs Lesotho, their most in a game during this campaign
0 – touches in the Bafana opposition box for Lesotho

Matchday 6: Bafana v Benin

On the morning of the Benin game, news broke that Bafana Bafana may be in trouble for breaking the suspension rules. Teboho Mokoena had accumulated two yellows (on Matchday 1 and Matchday 4) and was ineligible to play on MD5 but was fielded. The need for three points went from nice-to-have to high-priority, and there was fear that the timing of the news would have unsettled the team. Instead, the boys were fearless on the pitch, even without one of their most crucial players. The reward is back-to-back clean sheets and a crucial six points.

4 – consecutive clean sheets for Bafana under Broos, their best run since AFCON (also 4)
4 – touches in the opposition box for Benin (just two in either half)
1 – shot on target for Benin, the joint-fewest faced by Bafana in this campaign

The way forward

The Teboho Mokoena issue looks like it could be a serious inconvenience for the side. A three-point deduction looks most likely, depending on when the complainants filed their report (and they could still be some punishment for Bafana even if the protest was filed late). That said, Bafana would still be two points ahead with a positive goal difference if the worst (an automatic 3-0 defeat) happens.