Portugal vs Slovenia – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Portugal faces Slovenia in the UEFA Euro 2024 round of 16 on Monday in Frankfurt. The Selecao topped their group with six points whilst Slovenia are playing in their first-ever knockout game at a major tournament. They drew all three of their group matches.

Portugal Form

After their shock quarter-final exit at the 2022 World Cup to Morocco, Portugal won all 10 of their Euro qualifiers with 36 goals scored and just two conceded. They lost two of their four friendlies before the tournament, losing 2-0 to the next opponent Slovenia, and 2-1 at home to Croatia.

Their Euros began with a very late 2-1 win over the Czech Republic as they had 19 shots and 73% possession. A resounding 3-0 win over Turkiye sealed a spot in the knockout stages. With a heavily-changed XI, they were beaten 2-0 by Georgia despite having 2.04 xG and 24 shots.

Portugal Team News

Coach Roberto Martinez must decide between a back three and a back four formations. Pepe and Ruben Dias will return in defence after rests and both Bernardo Silva and Bruno Fernandes also had full breather’s vs Georgia.

Cristiano Ronaldo is set to lead the line despite a bit of a scoring drought. Pedro Neto and Rafael Leao are fighting for the left-winger role. At right back, it’s Joao Cancelo or Diogo Dalot.

Portugal Motivation

Martinez likes a possession-heavily style of play. However, his side are yet to click and the XI feels unbalanced.

Portugal will expect to progress but a loss to Slovenia in March will provide a warning to them.

Slovenia Form

Slovenia drew all three of their Group matches and ended third. They fought from a goal down to draw 1-1 with Denmark before a late goal leaked leading to a 1-1 draw vs Serbia. Their final match saw a solid 0-0 draw with England as they only allowed one “big chance” to the Three Lions.

They reached the Euros by winning seven of their matches in qualifying. Their five friendlies leading up to the tournament saw two wins and three draws. A fine 2-0 win over Portugal preceded a 2-1-win vs Armenia and a 1-1 draw against Bulgaria.

Slovenia Team News

Coach Matjaz Kek will stick with his usual XI in a disciplined 4-4-2 shape. Andraz Sporar and Benjamin Sesko of RB Leipzig will form the front two despite not scoring yet in the Euros.

Veteran forward Josip Ilicic will be an impact substitute whilst Jan Oblak is crucial in goal. Defensive midfielder Adam Gnezda Cerin has some of the best-pressing stats in the tournament so far.

Slovenia Motivation

Slovenia beat Portugal in Ljubljana in March and that will give the team confidence. They had just 27% of the ball and four shots vs England and will again play defensively.

They would have no problem going to extra time and trying to progress on penalties.

Key Stats

Portugal have won 15 of their last 18 matches

Portugal’s Ronaldo is goalless in 7 matches at major tournaments (World Cup & Euros)

Slovenia have lost just 1 of their last 15 matches (4 draws in a row)

Slovenia have averaged just 32% possession in the Euros

Slovenia beat Portugal 2-0 in March 2023

Verdict

This match could be close. Slovenia have a chance of taking this to extra time. Portugal should have enough to win in 90 minutes though with their strong bench.

Best Bet: Portugal win and Under 3.5 goals at 1.95

Value Bet: Portugal to win by exactly 1 goal at 3.45

Goalscorer Tip: Ronaldo to score anytime at 1.74

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis