Portugal v France – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Portugal faces France in the UEFA Euro 2024 quarter-finals on Saturday. Cristiano Ronaldo’s side have failed to score in their last 244 minutes of action and needed penalties to progress past Slovenia. France scored late to eliminate Belgium thanks to an own goal. Les Bleus have lost just once in 14 clashes with Portugal.

Portugal Form

Portugal cruised through Euro 2024 qualifying with ten wins in a row and 36 goals scored with just two leaked. They lost two of four friendlies before this tournament but began the Euros with a late 2-1 over Czechia. A 3-0 victory over Turkiye ensured their progress to the last 16.

In their final group match, they lost 2-0 to Georgia despite having 24 shots. A second blank was fired in the round of 16 as they drew 0-0 vs Slovenia. Cristiano Ronaldo missed a penalty in the 105th minute but goalkeeper Diogo Costa saved three spot-kicks during the shootout to send Portugal through.

Portugal Team News

Coach Roberto Martinez has used a back three and a back four at different times. Having played 120 minutes on Monday, he may consider freshening up his XI. Six players are one yellow from a ban: Cristiano Ronaldo, Joao Palhinha, Joao Cancelo, Joao Conceicao, Pedro Neto and Ruben Neves.

Wingers Diogo Jota, Pedro Neto, and Chico Conceicao are all options to freshen up the wide areas. Fullbacks Nelson Semedo and Diogo Dalot could be considered as other fresh legs.

Portugal Motivation

Martinez likes a possession-heavily style of play. They had 72% possession in their last match.

Portugal will be highly motivated, but they hardly ever beat France. The first goal will be crucial.

France Form

France’s last 18 matches have seen just two losses. In March, they beat Germany 2-0 and Chile 3-2. Their final warmup game before the Euros was a 0-0 stalemate vs Canada. An own goal helped them to a 1-0-win vs Austria to start Euro 2024.

They dominated the Netherlands in a 0-0 draw (15-8 on shots) before a 1-1 draw against Poland with 19 shots and 2.32 xG. Their last match saw an 85th-minute own goal to seal a 1-0 win over Belgium. Les Bleus outshot the Red Devils 19-5 but didn’t create many clear chances in a dull display.

France Team News

Adrien Rabiot is suspended for this match in midfield. Kylian Mbappe, Antoine Griezmann, Aurelien Tchouameni, and Ousmane Dembele are all one yellow card from missing a potential semi-final.

Didier Deschamps must choose between Eduardo Camavinga to replace Rabiot or the option of selecting an extra attacker with Antoine Griezmann as a number ten. Dembele or Bradley Barcola would therefore play on the left.

France Motivation

Les Bleus are a functional team, who don’t have many risks. Deschamps cares mostly about clean sheets and being hard to break down.

France would happily take a scrappy 1-0 win from this match.

Key Stats

Portugal have won 15 of their last 19 matches

Portugal’s Ronaldo is goalless in 8 matches at major tournaments (World Cup & Euros)

Portugal have failed to score in their last 2 matches

France have lost 2 of their last 18 fixtures

France have lost just 1 of their last 14 clashes with Portugal

France have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches

Verdict

This is again expected to be a close encounter. Neither side looks balanced or cohesive but France are good at churning out narrow wins. A France clean sheet looks like a good tip.

Best Bet: France clean sheet at 2.70

Alternate Bet: France win at 2.45

Correct Score Tip: Portugal 0-1 France at 6.50

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis