Portugal v Croatia – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Portugal face Croatia in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday night. The last four clashes between these countries have seen both sides on target and the last three meetings have had 13 goals to enjoy. Portugal reached the quarter-finals of Euro 2024 whilst Hrvatska were eliminated in the group stages.

Portugal Form

Portugal cruised through Euros qualifying with ten wins, 36 goals netted and just two conceded. The tournament itself did not go particularly well. They began with a 2-1 win over Czechia thanks to a late strike before a 3-0 win over Turkiye to seal qualification to the round of 16.

Their final group match saw a 2-0 defeat to Georgia as the Portuguese failed to score from 24 shots. In the round of 16, the heroics of goalkeeper Diogo Costa sealed a penalty shootout win after a 0-0 draw against Slovenia. In the quarter-finals, they lost on penalties after again drawing 0-0, this time vs France.

Portugal Team News

Coach Roberto Martinez had made some changes to his squad for this FIFA break. Pepe has retired and Rui Patricio is not among the goalkeepers. Joao Cancelo, Matheus Nunes, and Raphael Guerreiro are others who are not included.

Goncalo Ramos is injured up front but Cristiano Ronaldo is included. Young defenders Thiago Santos (Lille) and Renato Veiga (Chelsea) have been called up for the first time. Another surprise addition is 17-year-old Sporting CP forward Geovany Quenda.

Portugal Motivation

Martinez will continue with a possession-heavily style of play. Considering the plethora of youngsters called up, Portugal may not be taking the Nations League that seriously.

They will play to win this match, but we may also see several debuts.

Croatia Form

Croatia had a difficult time at the 2022 FIFA World Cup and during the Euros earlier this year. They went into the tournament in Germany with three wins in friendly matches but were humbled 3-0 by Spain in the tournament’s opening game.

A 2-2 draw vs Albania saw a 95th-minute goal leaked. With qualification on the line, they led 1-0 vs Italy in the final group B match, but a goal conceded in the 98th minute saw them eliminated before the knockout rounds.

Croatia Team News

Coach Zlatko Dalić has seen some changes since the Euros. Marcelo Brozovic has retired from international duty, but Luka Modric is still going strong on 178 caps. Bayern Munich right-back Josip Stanisic is out injured and won’t play any part.

Josip Juranović is also injured in defence whilst 105-cap Domagoj Vida has retired from international commitments. Winger Nikola Vlašić is another player missing from the squad selected for Euro 2024 due to an injury.

Croatia Motivation

Croatia won’t change style with the same coach and most of the same players from the Euros.

Expect good midfield possession and a patient way of playing. As always, there are good impact subs to come on to influence the match.

Key Stats

Portugal have won 15 of their last 20 matches

Portugal’s Ronaldo is 5 matches without a goal for Portugal   
      
Portugal have failed to score in their last 3 matches

Croatia have lost just twice in 18 matches

Croatia have conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches

Verdict

Croatia are leaky at the back but face a Portugal side who are not scoring many goals. This match has a draw written all over it.

Best Bet: Draw at 3.95

Alternate Bet: Both Teams to Score at 1.86

Correct Score Tip: Portugal 1-1 Croatia at 6.75

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis