Poland v Portugal – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Poland faces Portugal in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday. The Eagles have three points from two matches, while the Selecao won both of their fixtures during the September FIFA break, with Cristiano Ronaldo scoring in both games. Four of the last five clashes between these nations have ended in draws.

Poland Form

Poland reached Euro 2024 by beating Wales on penalties in the playoffs. They entered the tournament on an eight-match unbeaten streak. However, they faced a tough group, losing 2-1 to the Netherlands and 3-1 to Austria in their first two group games.

A 1-1 draw against France was a credible result, although they allowed 2.32 xG (expected goals) and were eliminated at the group stage. In the Nations League, a 97th-minute goal secured a 3-2 win away to Scotland. Their most recent match resulted in a deserved 1-0 defeat away to Croatia, where they were outshot 23-11.

Poland Team News

Wojciech Szczęsny retired from international duty after the Euros, so veteran Łukasz Skorupski is expected to start in goal. Aston Villa’s Matty Cash is unavailable due to injury, and Juventus striker Arkadiusz Milik is also absent.

Robert Lewandowski will lead the team in his 155th cap. Players like Jakub Moder, Piotr Zieliński, and Jakub Kiwior are struggling for regular minutes at the club level but are expected to play significant roles in this match.

Poland Motivation

Coach Michał Probierz is highly adaptable. His team can either play with low possession and a back five or dominate possession using attacking wingbacks.

In Warsaw, Poland will aim for a win. A draw wouldn’t be disastrous, but it might hinder their chances of securing a top-two finish.

Portugal Form

Portugal entered the Euros in somewhat shaky form, with two losses in their previous four matches. At the tournament, they beat Czechia 2-1 with a late goal before thrashing Turkey 3-0. However, they suffered a shock 2-0 loss to Georgia in their third match, despite having 2.04 xG and 22 shots.

In the knockout rounds, Portugal drew 0-0 in two consecutive matches. A penalty shootout win against Slovenia wasn’t enough, as they later lost to France on penalties and exited the tournament. In the Nations League, they won 2-1 in both home fixtures against Croatia and Scotland, registering 26 shots and 3.10 xG in the latter victory.

Portugal Team News

Coach Roberto Martínez has once again left out Matheus Nunes, Raphael Guerreiro, and Danilo Pereira for these fixtures. João Cancelo has been recalled, but José Sá has been dropped after losing his starting position at Wolves.

Gonçalo Ramos is injured, so the coach might opt for a back three or a back four. Young PSG star João Neves is pushing for a start. Cristiano Ronaldo will captain the side and lead the attack.

Portugal Motivation

Portugal will go all out to win this match and take a significant step toward progressing from their Nations League group.

If leading, they might withdraw their wingers and switch to a 3-5-2 formation to protect the lead.

Key Stats

Portugal has won 17 of their last 22 matches.

Portugal’s Ronaldo has scored in his last two matches for Portugal (goalless in five matches before that).
      
Poland has drawn 4 of their last 5 matches against Portugal.

Poland has lost 3 of their last 5 matches.

Poland has gone 7 matches without a clean sheet (conceding 11 goals).

Verdict

Portugal is in good form and has a very deep squad. Poland will make things difficult and could manage to secure yet another draw against these opponents.

Best Bet: Poland win/draw double chance at 2.25

Value Bet: Draw at 3.80

Correct Score Tip: Poland 1-1 Portugal at 6.75

Goalscorer Tip: Ronaldo to score anytime at 1.95