Portugal v Poland – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Portugal faces Poland in the UEFA Nations League on Friday. Roberto Martinez’s team has 10 points from four matches so far and will take on a Polish side missing key player Robert Lewandowski.

Portugal Form

Portugal had a tough Euro campaign, losing 2-0 to Georgia in the group stages and drawing 0-0 in consecutive knockout fixtures. They defeated Slovenia on penalties before losing to France in a shootout. In the Nations League, they started strong with a 2-1 home victory against Croatia.

Another 2-1 home win followed against Scotland, where they registered 26 shots and an impressive 3.10 xG. They then traveled to Poland and secured a 3-1 win, creating six big chances and achieving a 3.01 xG. On Tuesday, despite dominating possession (70%), they managed only a 0-0 draw away to Scotland.

Portugal Team News

Coach Roberto Martinez will be without Diogo Jota and Matheus Nunes due to injuries, with the latter recently recalled to the squad. Gonçalo Ramos remains sidelined, and Rúben Neves has not been included in the team.

Samu Costa and uncapped Nuno Tavares are potential candidates for minutes in this game. Chelsea duo Pedro Neto and Renato Veiga may also feature if Martinez opts to rotate his starting XI.

Portugal Motivation

Portugal is clearly prioritizing this tournament, and a draw would be enough to secure their spot in the next stage.

Expect them to dominate possession and create plenty of scoring opportunities, as they’ve consistently done in recent matches.

Poland Form

Poland earned just one point in their Euro 2024 group stage, a commendable 1-1 draw against France. In the Nations League, they needed a 97th-minute goal to secure a 3-2 win away to Scotland. A disappointing 1-0 defeat followed in Croatia, where they conceded 23 shots.

Their last two matches have exposed defensive frailties, conceding six goals. They allowed 3.01 xG in a 3-1 home loss to Portugal and managed a 3-3 draw at home against Croatia after coming back from 3-1 down. Despite playing the last 14 minutes against ten men, they couldn’t find a winner.

Poland Team News

Following Wojciech Szczęsny’s international retirement, either veteran Łukasz Skorupski or Marcin Bułka will start in goal. Aston Villa’s Matty Cash is sidelined due to injury.

The biggest news is the absence of 84-goal captain Robert Lewandowski, along with his deputy, Juventus striker Arkadiusz Milik. Turkey-based forward Krzysztof Piątek is expected to lead the line.

Poland Motivation

Coach Michał Probierz is likely to deploy a back five with wingbacks. Without their key striker, Poland may adopt a more conservative approach.

Having leaked goals in recent matches, they’ve had the entire week to work on defensive stability, which should lead to a more disciplined performance.

Key Stats

Portugal has won 18 of their last 24 matches.

Cristiano Ronaldo has scored 3 goals in his last 4 matches (after going 5 matches without a goal).
      
Poland has drawn 4 of their last 6 matches against Portugal.

Poland has lost 4 of their last 7 matches.

Poland is without a clean sheet in 9 matches, conceding 17 goals in that span.

Verdict

Portugal was dominant in the reverse fixture in Warsaw and is expected to prove too strong again here. Backing Ronaldo to score looks like a wise move, given his current international form.

Best Bet: Portugal to win (-1 handicap) at 1.68

Alternate Bet: Portugal to score over 2.5 team goals at 2.05

First Goalscorer Tip: Cristiano Ronaldo at 3.25