Nottingham Forest v Man Utd – Preview, Predictions & Best Bets

Nottingham Forest host Man Utd at The City Ground on Wednesday in the Carabao Cup semi-final first leg. Steve Cooper’s side last lifted the League Cup in 1990 and they’ve knocked out Tottenham and Wolves en route to the semis. United were on a nine-match winning streak before losing to Arsenal on Sunday. Erik Ten Hag’s side have beaten Aston Villa, Burnley and Charlton to reach this stage.

Nottingham Forest Form

Forest have been much improved in their results since October after a tough start. Their last 11 league matches have seen just two losses and they’ve only been beaten once in nine since Arsenal hammered them 5-0. A 1-0 home win against Crystal Palace came before the World Cup but they lost 3-0 at Man Utd after the resumption.

A deserved 1-1 home draw with Chelsea followed, before winning 1-0 at Southampton. After a 4-1 loss at Blackpool in the FA Cup, they beat Wolves on penalties in the Carabao Cup quarter-final after a 1-1 draw. A 2-0 win at home to Leicester followed and was thoroughly deserved (15-6 on shot count and 2.36 xG produced). Over the weekend, Forest scored late to draw 1-1 at Bournemouth having put up 1.93 xG and 20 shots.

Nottingham Forest Team News

Forest played their best side in the last round against Wolves and will go full strength in this one too. Taiwo Awoniyi is injured up front and Chris Wood, who made his debut against Bournemouth is cup-tied. Dean Henderson would have been ineligible in goal but he is injured anyway.

Cheikhou Kouyate is still absent in midfield and Ryan Yates went off at half-time with a knock over the weekend. Moussa Niakhaté is injured in defence but Jesse Lingard is fit in midfield and will hope to get some minutes.

Nottingham Forest Motivation

Considering that Cooper has been selecting very strong sides in this competition, motivation should be 100%. They have both legs of this semi-final consecutively with no league games in-between to distract them.

Forest have been pretty attacking in parts of matches in recent weeks in their 4-3-2-1 setup. They won’t park the bus and will try to play at a high tempo on transitions.

Man Utd Form

United have been in largely excellent form. In the league, it was one loss in 12 before Sunday’s late 3-2 defeat away at log leaders Arsenal. In all competitions, it’s nine wins in 11 matches as they won nine in a row before two setbacks in the last week.

They beat struggling Everton 3-1 in the FA Cup and then Charlton 3-0 at home in the Carabao Cup quarters. They then won the Manchester derby 2-1 by allowing City a paltry 0.65 xG albeit Ten Hag’s side scored a bizarrely awarded offside goal. In the last two matches, United drew 1-1 at Crystal Palace and lost 3-2 at Arsenal. The Gunners created 3.25 Expected Goals and outshot the Red Devils 25-6.

Man Utd Team News

Erik Ten Hag has rotated a bit more in recent weeks but is set to play close to his best XI in this one, with a possible trophy on the line. Key midfielder Casemiro is back from suspension and will start in place of Scott McTominay. Jadon Sancho and Diogo Dalot remain unavailable.

Anthony Martial is not expected to be fit enough to return for this one and Wout Weghorst hasn’t overly impressed in his two starts. Ten Hag will probably keep faith with the latter but selecting Alejandro Garnacho down the left and Marcus Rashford as a central striker is another option.

Man Utd Motivation

Very high. With a final against either Newcastle or Southampton to play for, Man Utd have a very realistic chance of winning silverware just six months into Ten Hag’s rein.

They will go into this first leg looking to be solid and to get a decent result ahead of the second leg next week at Old Trafford.

Key Stats

Nottm Forest have lost 1 of their last 7 PL matches (3-0 to Man Utd)

Nottm Forest have seen Under 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 PL matches

Nottm Forest have won 3 of their last 5 PL matches (D2)

Man Utd’s Rashford has scored 9 goals in his last 9 appearances

Man Utd have won 9 of their last 11 matches (all comps)

Man Utd have won 5 of their last 10 away matches (PL)

Man Utd have conceded in 7 of their last 8 away PL matches

Verdict

This should be a good game because Forest are in really good recent form, not least at home in the league (including a win vs Liverpool and a draw vs Chelsea). However, some key injuries may slant this towards a Man Utd side to reach the final over two legs, with Casemiro available again. I can see a cagey first leg playing out.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals at 1.90

Alternative Bet: Nottingham Forest win/draw double chance at 2.25

Goalscorer Tip: Rashford anytime scorer at 2.20

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis