Netherlands v Turkiye – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

The Netherlands faces Turkiye in the UEFA Euro 2024 quarter-finals on Saturday. Vincenzo Montella’s Turkish side survived an onslaught to progress past Austria. The Dutch were dominant vs Romania in the last-16 but only killed the game off after 82 minutes. The sides last met in 2021 as the Netherlands won 6-1.

Netherlands Form

The Dutch came into the tournament after a tough 18 months. In 2023, they lost twice to Austria and also to Croatia and Italy. Before this tournament, they lost 2-1 to Germany in March. A late goal began their Euro 2024 journey with a 2-1 win vs Poland.

A 0-0 draw vs France followed as the Netherlands were outshot 15-8. A 3-2 defeat to Austria saw the Dutch fall behind on three different occasions. Against Romania in the round of 16, the Dutch had 2.93 xG and outshot their opponents 23-5 in a 3-0 victory.

Netherlands Team News

Ronaldo Koeman has three players who are booked from a ban: Denzel Dumfries, Donyell Malen, and Jerdy Schouten. Donyell Malen is set to start after his brace vs Romania after coming on at half-time.

The rest of the side is set to be unchanged. Bayern Munich’s Matthijs De Ligt and Bayer Leverkusen’s Jeremie Frimpong are set to remain among the substitutes.

Netherlands Motivation

The Dutch were good in the last round, but they lacked some cohesion going forward despite the high possession numbers.

Once leading, their pace makes them very dangerous on the counter-attack.

Turkiye Form

Turkiye had some great results in late 2023, beating Germany and Croatia away from home. They were winless in six matches coming into the Euros. A 3-1-win vs Georgia in the opening match saw 3.01 xG produced. A 3-0 loss to Portugal saw three goals leaked in 38 minutes.

They guaranteed progression to the latter stages with a 2-1-win vs Czechia. A 94th-minute winner vs nine men came from veteran striker Cenk Tosun. In the round of 16, the Turkish beat Austria 2-1 despite being outshot 21-6 and allowing 3.14 Expected Goals.

Turkiye Team News

Two-goal hero from the last round, Merih Demiral is suspended for this match. The centre-back was banned by UEFA for a political gesture to the crowd. Seven players are one yellow from a ban: Arda Guler, Mert Gunok, Kenan Yildiz, Kaan Ayhan, Zeki Celik, Mert Mulder, and Salih Ozcan.

Fenerbahce defender Samet Akaydin is set to replace Demiral. Cenk Tosun will be an impact sub as two teenagers Kenan Yildiz of Juventus and Arda Guler of Real Madrid are set to start. Key man Hakan Çalhanoğlu is available after serving a ban.

Turkiye Motivation

Turkey will be highly motivated and may feel wronged after the suspension handed down to Demiral.

They will fight hard and play with speed and creativity. However, they will drop back to protect any lead, as they did vs Austria (40% possession).

Key Stats

The Netherlands have progressed from 5 of their last 7 QF clashes (major tournaments)

Netherlands winger Gakpo has 3 goals in Euro 2024

Turkey have faced the most shots of the QF teams (59)

Turkey have seen 13 goals in their last 2 matches vs Netherlands (4-2 win & 6-1 loss)

Verdict

This match should be exciting. Both sides have enough to score but the Dutch should have a bit too much for Turkiye.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score at 1.74

Value Bet: Netherlands win and both to score at 3.35

Goalscorer Tip: Gakpo to score anytime at 2.40

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis