Netherlands v France – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Netherlands face France in UEFA Euro 2024 on Thursday in Leipzig in Group D. The Dutch beat Poland 2-1 in their tournament opener whilst Les Bleus beat Austria 1-0. France have won seven of their last eight clashes with Oranje.

Netherlands Form

The Dutch were knocked out of the World Cup by Argentina at the end of 2022. A 4-0 thrashing by France followed in the Euros qualifier. Their form in 2023 continued to be poor as they lost to Croatia and Italy in the Nations League and later lost 2-1 to France again in Euro qualifying.

Four successive qualifying wins followed without conceding a goal to seal their place in the tournament. In March’s FIFA break, they beat Scotland 4-0 and lost 2-1 to Germany in two friendlies. They warmed up for Euro 2024 with 4-0 wins over Canada and Iceland. An 83rd-minute goal sealed a 2-1 win vs Poland in their tournament opener last Sunday.

Netherlands Team News

Ronaldo Koeman has his favourites and probably won’t change his XI from the opening match. That means that match-winner Wout Weghorst will remain on the bench as an impact substitute.

Bayern Munich’s Matthijs De Ligt is set to be left out with Stefan de Vrij partnering with Virgil Van Dijk. Top performers in European club competitions like Ian Maatsen, Jeremie Frimpong, and Donyell Malen are also set to be left on the bench.

Netherlands Motivation

With 66% of the ball in their first match, the Dutch like to keep possession in deeper areas. They may have plenty of the ball against a pragmatic France team.

A draw would be a great result considering their awful record vs Les Bleus of late, including a 4-0 thrashing.

France Form

Since losing the World Cup final to Argentina back in December 2022, France have played 15 matches with two losses. Both of those defeats came to Germany in friendly matches. Didier Deschamps’ team breezed through Euros qualifying with seven wins and one draw, scoring 29 goals and leaking just three.

In March’s friendlies, they lost 2-0 at home to Germany and beat Chile 3-2. Their pre-Euros warmup matches brought a 3-0 win vs Luxembourg and a 0-0 draw vs Canada. Their opener on Monday saw a 1-0 win vs Austria thanks to a 38th-minute own goal. They allowed just six shots in the victory.

France Team News

Everything centres around whether Kylian Mbappe will play after breaking his nose vs Austria. He has delayed surgery and will have to play in a protective mask when he returns. Olivier Giroud and Randal Kolo Muani are both options to take his place up-front.

Aurelien Tchouameni is fit after an injury and may feature in the second half. William Saliba is set to play in defence ahead of Benjamin Pavard and Ibrahima Konate.

France Motivation

Les Bleus are far more exciting. They’re a pragmatic side who will happily cede possession at times and play on the break.

Deschamps only cares about winning and would be delighted to grind out another 1-0 win here.

Key Stats

Netherlands have lost 7 of their last 8 matches vs France

Netherlands have drawn just 4 of their last 30 matches vs France (11 wins, 15 losses)

France have lost 2 of their last 15 fixtures

France’s Mbappe has 6 goals in 5 matches vs Netherlands

Verdict

The recent meetings have seen France triumph, but Mbappe’s involvement is in doubt. This could be a tight affair with not many goals and Les Bleus keeping a clean sheet again.

Best Bet: France clean sheet at 3.00

Alternate Bet: France win at 2.25

Correct Score Tip: Netherlands 0-1 France at 7.75

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis