Marseille v PSG – Preview, Predictions, And Best Bets

Marseille host PSG in the Coupe de France Round of 16 on Wednesday night at Stade Orange Vélodrome. The visitors look to set be without both Kylian Mbappe and Neymar for this one. The hosts last lifted this trophy in 1989 whilst PSG have won this cup 12 times since then.

Marseille Form

Since their 2-1 matchday six loss to Tottenham in November, Marseille have been in great form. They won six successive Ligue 1 matches once their European commitments stopped proving a distraction. That included wins at Montpellier (2-1) and Troyes (2-0) after the World Cup before a 3-1 home win against Lorient.

After beating Rennes 2-1 at home in the last round of the Coupe de France, they drew 1-1 with fourth-placed Monaco. A 2-0 win Nantes came next with debutant Azzedine Ounahi – outstanding for Morocco at the World Cup – netting from the bench. They lost 3-1 at home to Nice in their last match despite 22 shots, 2.40 xG and three ‘big chances’ created.

Marseille Team News

Coach Igor Tudor has a very strong squad and could make some changes. Midfielder Amine Harit is out long-term with a knee problem but there’s a clean bill of health otherwise. Ruslan Malinovsky and Alexis Sanchez came on at half-time against Nice and combined for a goal and both could be handed starts. Dimitri Payet is set to be dropped.

Azzedine Ounahi and Jordan Veretout are two others pushing for places in the starting XI in the midfield. Mattéo Guendouzi was dropped against Nantes two matches back and could lose out.

Marseille Motivation

This is a huge rivalry and Marseille will be desperate to dump PSG out of his cup. They will have an extremely vocal, passionate crowd behind them.

It is expected to be the best XI for this match and the hosts will attack and try to win in 90 minutes.

PSG Form

PSG ended 2022 on a run of 25 Ligue 1 matches without defeat. This calendar year started badly for them with a 3-1 loss at Lens on New Year’s Day with Neymar and Lionel Messi both absent after the World Cup. They responded with a 2-0 win against Angers but then lost another league match, 1-0 at Rennes, this time with Kylian Mbappe only featuring from the bench.

A 7-0 win at Pays de Cassel in the last round of the cup preceded further dropped points in a 1-1 home draw with Reims. They’ve won their last two to get back on track: 3-1 at Montpellier and 2-1 at home to Toulouse. Goals from Achraf Hakimi and Lionel Messi saw them come from 1-0 down.

PSG Team News

Coach Christophe Galtier has several really important injuries to contend with. Renato Sanches went off injured after 14 minutes against Toulouse. Neymar and Kylian Mbappe missed that match and are not set to return until later this month, although the former has a slim chance of making the bench.

In defence, Presnel Kimpembe is still out and so is Sergio Ramos, both due to injury. Marco Verratti is back from suspension and will boost Galtier’s midfield diamond, the shape he has used of late. Hugo Ekitike will partner Messi up front, assuming the latter is risked with big matches on the horizon.

PSG Motivation

PSG will want to win this match but it’s low on their priorities with a clash against Bayern Munich coming up. They will attack and look to win but with a narrow midfield four, there could be plenty o’’ defending with the ball’.

There is a big rivalry between the sides and Marseille will kick lumps out of PSG, who may not fancy that ahead of the UEFA Champions League resuming.

Key Stats

Marseille have lost 3 of their last 7 home Ligue 1 matches

Marseille have L7 and D3 of their last 10 home matches vs PSG

PSG have lost 2 of their last 3 away Ligue 1 matches

10 of PSG’s last 15 away matches have seen them score 3+ goals (Ligue 1)

Verdict

This match is hard to call. PSG have really missed Neymar and Mbappe of late and won’t have anywhere near as much firepower. Marseille will be really up for this match and look excellent value to win, especially with their depth and options in midfield and attack.

Best Bet: Marseille win/draw double chance (90 mins) at 1.71
Alternative Bet: Marseille to quality at 2.25
Value Bet: Marseille win at 3.10 (90 mins)

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis