Man Utd v Bayern– Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Man Utd host Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday night. Die Roten have already qualified as Group A winners whilst only a victory gives the Red Devils a chance of progression. Erik Ten Hag’s side needs a victory and for the other match in the group to finish in a draw.

Man Utd Form

United are a mess right now. Their last 19 matches across all competitions have yielded just eight wins and they have arguably won more matches than their performances have deserved. In the league, they strung together a streak of six wins in eight matches with very little conviction in those victories.

In the Champions League, they’ve lost to Galatasaray at home, lost away to FC Copenhagen, and only beat the Danish opponents at home thanks to a last-minute penalty save. After winning 3-0 at Everton despite allowing 2.47 xG, they went to Galatasaray and surrendered a 3-1 lead to draw 3-3. A dire 1-0 loss at Newcastle preceded a top response in beating Chelsea 2-1 (producing 4.17 xG). On Saturday, they were humbled 3-0 at Old Trafford by Bournemouth.

Man Utd Team News

Erik Ten Hag continues to have several significant injuries. Lisandro Martinez and Tyrell Malacia are absent in defence and Victor Lindelof is doubtful. In midfield, there is no Casemiro, Mason Mount, or Christian Eriksen and Sofyan Amrabat is struggling for consistent form.

Rasmus Hojlund is set to be recalled after Anthony Martial’s limp performance versus Bournemouth. Marcus Rashford is back from a European ban, but he hasn’t started the last two fixtures, and we could see Antony and Alejandro Garnacho preferred once again.

Man Utd Motivation

Confidence and morale are low in the squad. They will be motivated to get the win they need and then hope that FC Copenhagen and Galatasaray draw in the other match.

Only those two results will see Man Utd progress. Expect to see them attempt an energetic, high-pressing game.

Bayern Form

Die Roten are having a curious season under Thomas Tuchel. They have topped their Champions League group with a match to spare and they’re second in the Bundesliga, three points off the summit, after a shock weekend defeat. A 13-match unbeaten streak included a 3-1 win in Turkey vs Galatasaray and an 8-0 thrashing of Darmstadt. A shock 3-1 defeat at minnows Saarbrucken in the DFB Pokal.

Some very strong results followed, not least thrashing Dortmund 4-0 away and somewhat grinding out three further wins: 2-1 vs Galatasaray at home, 4-2 vs Heidenheim, and 1-0 at FC Koln. They were toothless in a matchday five 0-0 home draw vs FC Copenhagen (0.69 xG) before being destroyed 5-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday. They had 65% possession, 2.08 xG and missed three ‘big chances’ in the defeat. Frankfurt scored five goals from 1.32 xG.

Bayern Team News

Having already qualified for the top spot, it’s unclear what sort of side Thomas Tuchel will select. Matthijs De Ligt is out with a knee injury and so is right back Bouna Sarr. Fullbacks Alphonso Davies and Noussair Mazraoui were hooked at half-time on Saturday after poor showings.

Serge Gnabry has picked up a muscle injury and won’t feature. Thomas Muller and Jamal Musiala are pushing for recalls to the XI and Mathys Tel will hope for another opportunity. Harry Kane is expected to start on his return to England.

Bayern Motivation

Considering they’ve already qualified, we can’t tell which version of Bayern will show up. The weekend loss arguably increases motivation and focus for this one.

Tuchel will go to Old Trafford looking to spoil the party. A draw would see United knocked out and he may be quite satisfied with an improved display and one point here.

Key Stats

Man Utd have won just 1 of their last 8 matches in the Champions League (4 losses in last 6)

Man Utd have drawn just 1 of their last 20 matches

Man Utd have lost 6 of their last 11 home matches

Bayern have lost just 1 away Champions League match since September 2017

Bayern Munich have kept just 1 clean sheet in their last 7 UCL matches

Bayern’s Kane has scored just 6 goals in 20 appearances vs Man Utd

Verdict

This should be a game full of goals. Man Utd have to attack, and they are not defending well right now. Bayern are not keeping clean sheets in this competition, but they have plenty of firepower. Right now, it’s difficult to see United getting the win they need.

Best Bet: Over 3.5 goals at 2.30

Alternative Bet: Bayern Munich win/draw double chance + Over 2.5 goals at 2.55

High-Value Bet: Both Teams to Score in Both Halves at 8.25

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis