Man City v Newcastle- Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Man City faces Newcastle at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday evening in the Premier League. The hosts are looking for a response to their capitulation at Real Madrid in midweek as they through away a place in the UEFA Champions League final. They will hope to secure the league title and need nothing less than a win against an in-form Newcastle side with four wins in their last five.

Man City Form

City have lost just twice in 28 matches but both of those proved damaging. Liverpool beat them in the FA Cup semi-final 3-2 and then they were beaten 3-1 by Real Madrid in midweek to lose 6-5 on aggregate. With 89 minutes on the clock, they had a two-goal advantage in the tie, only to concede three times in six minutes.

They had won four in a row before that. 3-0 and 5-1 cruises against Brighton and Watford respectively were followed by the Madrid first leg. They gave up just 0.7 xG and produced 2.8 xG but took just a 4-3 home victory which didn’t prove enough in the end. Their last league match saw a 4-0 win at Leeds.

Man City Team News

City look set to be without John Stones in defence once again. Kyle Walker is also absent having aggregated an injury against Real Madrid in midweek. Joao Cancelo and either Nathan Ake or Oleksandr Zinchenko will be the fullbacks.

Further forward, it’s set to be the best XI with no rotation. Kevin de Bruyne was rested in the last league match but will start if fully fit. Raheem Sterling and Jack Grealish may need to continue to settle for spots on the bench.

Man City Motivation

Morale will be low after they somewhat choked in midweek. The Premier League is their only shot at silverware this season and all focus will be on this match to rescue their season with a trophy.

City will attack and are certain to monopolise possession. They also won’t take their foot off the pedal if leading as goal difference could be crucial at the end of the season.

Newcastle Form

Eddie Howe has done a remarkable job since taking over. The Magpies have 10 wins in their last 15 matches and had four wins in a row before losing last time out. Much of their turnaround has been based on their home league form with six wins on the bounce and not being beaten on their turf since December.

Before the winning streak, there were a few poor results, losing 1-0 at lowly Everton and being thrashed 5-1 at Tottenham. They have been very hard to break down for Chelsea and Liverpool who could only scrape 1-0 victories.

Newcastle Team News

Eddie Howe is still without several long-term injury victims in Callum Wilson, Jamal Lewis, and Isaac Hayden while Kieran Trippier’s season looked over but he could sneak onto the bench for this one after injury. Fabian Schar also has an ankle sprain and Ryan Fraser has a hamstring injury.

Chris Wood may remain on the bench here in favour of more mobile options like Joelinton in the attack. Jamal Lascelles is fit and will replace Schar in defence.

Newcastle Motivation

It’s difficult to tell as they have been safe for a while yet have shown complete focus and motivation. They will likely play quite defensively as they did at Stamford Bridge and against Liverpool last week and try to nick a 0-0 draw or 1-0 win.

Avoiding a thrashing will also be a concern if they fall 1-0 or 2-0 down quite early. In that case, they could shut up shop to limit the damage.

Key Stats

City have won 19 of their last 23 PL matches (L1, D3)

City have lost 2 of their last 28 matches (all comps)

City have won just 4 of their last 8 matches (all comps)

City’s Gabriel Jesus has scored 53 PL goals in 96 starts for the club

Newcastle have lost their last 12 away matches vs Man City

Newcastle have won just 1 of their last 28 PL matches vs Man City (L23, D4)

Newcastle have taken 32 points in 2022, third-most in the PL

Newcastle have lost 3 of their last 4 away matches

Verdict

This looks likely to be a Man City win. They simply have to respond well and bounce back and will know the result of Liverpool’s match vs Spurs the day before. A victory by more than two goals looks likely and Jesus could be backed to continue his fine form of late.

Best Bet: Man City win to nil at 1.80
Value Bet: Man City win (-2 spread) at 2.25
Correct Score Tip: Man City 3-0 Newcastle at 7.00
Alternative Bet: Man City win (-1 spead) and Gabriel Jesus to score anytime at 1.88

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis