Man City v Newcastle – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Man City host Newcastle in the FA Cup quarter-finals on Saturday. City’s home record vs The Magpies has seen nine wins in a row. Pep Guardiola’s side won the FA Cup last season and will want to retain it. The Magpies’ last domestic trophy was in 1955.

Man City Form

City have been flying of late, winning 16 of their 17 matches going into last weekend’s big clash vs Liverpool. They ground out 1-0 wins vs Brentford and Bournemouth and then thrashed Luton 6-2 in the FA Cup as Erling Haaland scored five goals.

A 3-1 home victory over Man Utd saw City having 27 shots and only allowing three shots. They put up 3.33 xG in that victory. A 3-1 home win over FC Copenhagen sealed a 6-2 aggregate progression to the Champions League quarter-finals. City drew 1-1 at Liverpool last week after being under pressure for the second half. They were outshot 12-3 after the interval.

Man City Team News

City are without Jack Grealish due to a groin injury. Jeremy Doku is set to be recalled on the left wing. Kevin de Bruyne is ruled out so Julian Alvarez could play in that position.

Matheus Nunes should be available after a finger injury. Ederson has a thigh injury so Stefan Ortega will deputise in goal. Ruben Dias is set for a recall at the back.

Man City Motivation

City have a big game against Arsenal coming up after the international break. They have plenty of time to prepare for that and have had a full week off since Liverpool.

Motivation and focus will be at 100% to win this match and reach the semi-finals.

Newcastle Form

Newcastle have been in an improved form of late with just two losses in nine. They were beaten 3-2 at Chelsea in midweek despite an even game overall. They beat Fulham 2-0 in the FA Cup and 3-1 at Aston Villa in the league. A bizarre 4-4 home draw vs Luton followed at St. James’ Park.

After winning 3-2 at Nottingham Forest, they drew 2-2 at home to Bournemouth before losing 4-1 at Arsenal having tailed 4-0. Their last two matches saw a win on penalties at Blackburn in the FA Cup and then a 3-0 home victory over Wolves in a more circumspect display.

Newcastle Team News

Nick Pope remains absent in goal whilst Kieran Trippier is ruled out at right back. Dan Burn is doubtful at left back and Sven Botman is playing through a knee injury.

Sandro Tonali and Joelinton are unavailable in midfield. Lewis Miley could be recalled in that area. Callum Wilson is absent up front whilst Harvey Barnes and Anthony Gordon are both very doubtful.

Newcastle Motivation

The Magpies are desperate to end their trophy drought and will give 100% attention to the FA Cup.

They will almost certainly park the bus and hope for a goal on the break. If they take an open approach, a thrashing could be headed their way.

Key Stats

Man City won their last 9 home matches vs Newcastle in all competitions

Man City have won 16 of their last 18 matches

City’s Erling Haaland has scored 10 goals in his last 8 matches

Newcastle have failed to score in their last 5 trips to the Etihad

Newcastle have lost just once in 9 matches in all competitions (4 wins, 3 draws)

Newcastle have won 4 of their last 7 away matches

Verdict

The stats all point to City winning this match with a clean sheet. Newcastle are depleted in attack and probably won’t muster many shots in the match.

Best Bet: Man City win to zero at 2.30

Alternate Bet: Man City win (-2 goals handicap) at 2.55

Goalscorer Tip: Erling Haaland 2 or more goals at 3.30 or Alvarez anytime goalscorer at 2.70

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis