Luton Town v Man City – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Luton host Man City in the FA Cup fifth round on Tuesday. The Hatters have lost three successive matches and are leaking plenty of goals. Pep Guardiola’s side have 13 wins in their last 14 fixtures. City won 2-1 when these sides met in the league in December.

Luton Town Form

Luton have lost three consecutive league matches and have leaked 13 goals in their last four fixtures. Before this losing run, they have tasted defeats just once in nine matches in all competitions. After successive FA Cup wins, they thrashed Brighton 4-0 at home with 3.21 Expected Goals produced.

A wild 4-4 draw at Newcastle was a fine result but they lost 3-1 at home to Sheffield United in their following match. A 2-1 home defeat to Man Utd saw a strong first-half display. In their last match, they led 1-0 at Liverpool after 55 minutes but eventually succumbed to a 4-1 loss at Anfield.

Luton Town Team News

Luton remains without centre-back and captain Tom Lockyer at the back after his cardiac arrest. Marvelous Nakamba is not expected to play again this season in midfield after knee surgery. Mads Andersen is absent at the back too.

Elijah Adebayo has a thigh injury and is a major doubt whilst Jacob Brown has had knee surgery and won’t play for a while. Albert Sambi Lokonga injured his hamstring against Liverpool and is a serious doubt. Alfie Doughty should shake off a knock to start at left wingback.

Luton Town Motivation

The Hatters have not been sitting back and defending at all. Against both Man Utd and Liverpool, they took the game to their opponents and tried to pull off a shock.

A similar approach is expected for this match. They will try to counter- attack quickly and disrupt City’s rhythm in the hopes of progressing to the next round.

Man City Form

Man City have lost once since December and recently had an 11-match winning streak. After winning 2-0 at home to Everton and 3-1 at FC Copenhagen 3-1 in the UEFA Champions League. A 1-1 home draw against City required a late equaliser in a frustrating match.

City bounced back to beat Brentford 1-0 at home, but it took until the 71st minute to score despite having 25 shots. On Saturday, they scored in the 24th minute and won 1-0 at Bournemouth. They had 62% of the ball but were outshot 9-6 in the second half and had to hold firm for the win.

Man City Team News

Pep Guardiola is without defender Josko Gvardiol but winger Jack Grealish was back in the squad at Bournemouth. Kyle Walker is expected to be recalled after a rest in the last match.

Jeremy Doku is set to start, and Kevin De Bruyne may get an opportunity in the XI. Mateo Kovacic and Matheus Nunes are the two players who are set to drop to the substitutes bench. It’s unclear if Guardiola will play his full-strength XI in the FA Cup.

Man City Motivation

Man City will want to do something in the FA Cup after their early Carabao Cup exit. The strength of their XI will tell you how seriously Pep Guardiola is taking the match.

They will attack and look to win in 90 minutes and avoid going to penalties.

Key Stats

Luton have lost their last 3 matches

Luton have lost 7 of their 12 away league matches

Luton’s last 4 matches have seen 13 goals conceded (7 goals scored)

Man City have won 13 of their last 14 matches

Man City have gone 4 years without winning the FA Cup

City have won 9 of their 13 away league matches this season (3 losses)

Verdict

I can only see a win for the visitors in this match. The game should be exciting with a cup feel to it. Luton will attack and may have enough to score once.

Best Bet: Man City win (-1 handicap) at 1.71
Value Bet: Man City Win and Both Teams to Score at 2.70
Goalscorer Tip: Julian Alvarez to score anytime at 3.10

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis