Liverpool v Arsenal – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

The Reds host the Gunners at Anfield on Thursday night. Both sides are missing players due to the Africa Cup of Nations as they face off in this Carabao Cup semi-final first leg. Liverpool cruised to a 4-0 victory when the sides met in November.

Liverpool Form

The Reds have lost just once in their last 13 matches. They won eight consecutive matches, scoring 21 goals and conceding just three in that streak. An off performance followed as they allowed 3.4 xG in a 2-2 draw with Tottenham.

The last few matches have seen a slight dip in their displays and results. They trailed 3-1 to Leicester before coming back to 3-3 (and winning on penalties in the League Cup) before losing 1-0 to the Foxes in the league. They then surrendered a 2-0 lead at Chelsea to draw 2-2 before an average performance to beat Shrewsbury 4-1 in the FA Cup thanks to two late goals.

Liverpool Team News

Jurgen Klopp is without Mohamed Salah, Naby Keita, and Sadio Mane due to the Africa Cup of Nations. Trent Alexander-Arnold has COVID-19 but Roberto Firmino is back and both Alisson and Joel Matip should return from illness too.

Thiago Alcantara is doubtful with a hip injury in midfield. Liverpool could have a frontline of Firmino, Diogo Jota, and Takumi Minamino. It remains to be seen whether Virgil Van Dijk starts this one having played in the FA Cup against Shrewsbury.

Liverpool Motivation

This is difficult to tell and the starting XI will reveal a lot. The Reds host Brentford on Sunday but that should not prove a distraction.

Liverpool hasn’t always taken the domestic cups particularly seriously but should be fully motivated to face a big rival like Arsenal with a cup final in the offing.

Arsenal Form

After winning four consecutive league matches (after a run of three defeats in four in the PL), The Gunners moved into the top four that run thanks to beating Southampton 3-0, West Ham 2-0 and then taking three points at Leeds in a 4-1 win against a side missing a dozen players.

A 5-0 win at Norwich came next before conceding in injury time to lose 2-1 at home to Man City. Arteta’s side made it two losses in a row as Nottm Forest scored a late goal to knock the Gunners out of the FA Cup after a toothless display.

Arsenal Team News

The Gunners are without two midfielders and two attackers due to international duty. Thomas Partey, Mohamed Elneny, Nicolas Pepe and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang are all absent. Gabriel returns from suspension at center back whilst Alexandre Lacazette and Kieran Tierney will be recalled.

The midfield is less clear as Granit Xhaka has had COVID-19 and Charlie Patino may be a bit raw. It could see Albert Lokonga partnered with Ben White. Emile Smith Rowe and Takehiro Tomiyasu are both doubtful and are 50-50 to feature in this one.

Arsenal Motivation

Arsenal takes the domestic cups very seriously under Arteta, who has already won an FA Cup with the Gunners. He would love to make another final.

After their FA Cup exit to Nottingham Forest, more focus can be given to this match. Arsenal does face Tottenham on Sunday which is a huge match in the top four race and could prove a slight distraction.

Key Stats

Liverpool have conceded 9 goals in their last 6 matches (no clean sheets)

Liverpool have scored 3+ goals in 10 of their last 12 PL matches against the Gunners

LFC are 23 home matches unbeaten (W16, D7)

Arsenal have scored 20 goals in their last 7 matches

Arsenal have lost 4 of their last 6 away matches

Arsenal have conceded in 5 of their last 6 away matches (12 conceded, 2.0 per game)

Verdict

This match looks set to have goals. Liverpool is formidable at home and Arsenal is poor on the road right now. Both teams should score and the Reds are favoured to win at Anfield.

Best Bet: Both teams to score at 1.60
Alternative Bet: Liverpool win at 2.05
Multiplier Leg: Liverpool/draw double chance + over 1.5 goals at 1.64
Value Bet: Liverpool win and both score at 3.75

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis