Leverkusen v AC Milan – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Bayer Leverkusen face AC Milan in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday. Die Werkself began their European campaign with a 4-0 win over Feyenoord, while the Rossoneri were outplayed in a 3-1 home loss to Liverpool. This will be the first-ever competitive meeting between the two clubs.

Leverkusen Form

Leverkusen won last season’s Bundesliga title without losing a match. They suffered a 3-0 loss in the Europa League final to Atalanta before completing the double by winning the DFB Pokal final three days later. They started this season by lifting the German Super Cup on penalties after a 2-2 draw against Stuttgart.

In the Bundesliga this season, Leverkusen have won three of their five matches. Their only defeat came at home to RB Leipzig, where they squandered a 2-0 lead despite outshooting their opponents 26-8. Three wins followed, including a 4-0 victory at Feyenoord in the Champions League. On Saturday, they drew 1-1 at Bayern Munich, managing just 31% possession and being outshot 18-3.

Leverkusen Team News

Xabi Alonso has no suspensions for this match. He fielded his strongest side against Bayern and could make a few tweaks for this game. Alejandro Grimaldo picked up a late injury in the last match, and his participation is uncertain.

Victor Boniface or Patrik Schick could lead the line as a specialist striker. Another option is to use Amine Adli or Florian Wirtz in a false nine role.

Leverkusen Motivation

Leverkusen are placing a strong focus on the Champions League this season. A home win here would be a big step toward qualifying for the knockout stages.

Xabi Alonso’s team will look to attack and try to control more possession than they managed in their last fixture.

AC Milan Form

Milan have turned their season around in recent weeks. Last season ended poorly, with an exit to Roma in the Europa League and only one win in their final seven league fixtures. This season started badly with a 2-2 home draw against Torino after scoring two late goals, followed by a 2-1 loss at Parma.

A 2-2 draw at Lazio came in a poor display, but the FIFA break allowed for a reset, and Milan responded with a 4-0 win against Venezia. Although they were outclassed 3-1 at home by Liverpool (outshot 23-8 and conceding 3.09 xG), they bounced back well. A superb 2-1 win at Inter Milan was followed by a 3-0 victory over Lecce on Friday.

AC Milan Team News

Coach Paulo Fonseca may have turned the season around by switching to a 4-2-4 formation. Tammy Abraham and Alvaro Morata could start together up front again. Key center-back Malick Thiaw is available after recovering from injury.

Alessandro Florenzi and Ismael Bennacer remain out with long-term injuries. Davide Calabria is doubtful at right-back, with Emerson Royal likely to step in. Noah Okafor is also a doubt due to a muscle injury.

AC Milan Motivation

AC Milan have looked vulnerable and open at the back, but the formation change has added more attacking threat.

They would likely be content with a draw in Germany. Fonseca’s team selection, particularly whether he opts for a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-2-4 formation, will signal his approach.

Key Stats

Bayer Leverkusen have lost just 2 of their last 61 matches

Leverkusen have scored 2+ goals in their last 15 home matches

AC Milan have only 4 wins in their last 16 matches (3 wins in their last 4)

AC Milan have just 1 win in their last 6 away Champions League matches

Milan have failed to score in 4 of their last 6 away UCL matches

Verdict

An exciting match is expected. Leverkusen should score twice and have enough to win, but Milan could be a serious threat with their attacking quartet.

Best Bet: Bayer Leverkusen to win at 1.68

Alternative Bet: Over 3.5 goals at 2.25

Goalscorer Tip: Wirtz to score anytime at 2.20 or Morata to score anytime at 2.50

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis