Lazio v Bayern Munich – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Lazio host Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League round of 16 on Wednesday. The Rome-based club sits eighth in Serie A and lost at this stage to Die Roten in 2021. Bayern are not at their right now but 11 of their last 12 round-of-16 ties have seen them reach the quarter-finals.

Lazio Form

Lazio finished second before Atletico Madrid in Group E to reach the last 16. After losing 2-0 to both Atleti and Inter Milan in December, they won five on the spin in all competitions with four successive Serie A victories.

In mid-January, they were thrashed 3-0 away at Inter Milan in the Italian Super Cup before a 0-0 home draw vs Napoli. After losing 3-1 at Atalanta, they bounced back on Saturday. Lazio won 3-1 at Claudio Ranieri’s Cagliari to come into this tie with some confidence.

Lazio Team News

Central defender Patric is a doubt with a shoulder problem. He was starting regularly in January before the injury. Midfielder Nicolo Rovella is back from a domestic suspension and is battling Danilo Cataldi for a start here.

Left winger Mattia Zaccagni is available after a foot injury. Gustav Isaksen and Felipe Anderson are set to start wide in preference to Zaccagni and veteran Pedro Rodriguez.

Lazio Motivation

The Biancocelesti need to go all out for a home win in this one. Even a draw would make their chances of progression very slim.

They can afford to attack and not be worried about the away goals rule. Sarri has a decent bench to call upon in Pedro, Vecino, and Castellanos.

Bayern Form

Bayern have lost three of their last nine league matches and now look long-shots for the Bundesliga title. They topped their Champions League group and won 1-0 at Man Utd on matchday six and ended with five wins and one draw.

Prior to that win at Old Trafford, they had lost 5-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt. After three league wins, they lost 1-0 at home to Werder Bremen. A 3-2 victory at Augsburg and a 3-1 home win over Borussia Monchengladbach followed. On Saturday, they were schooled 3-0 at Bayer Leverkusen with just one shot on target.

Bayern Team News

Thomas Tuchel had Dayot Upamecano fit to start the last match as he moved to a back three. Alphonso Davies is absent at left back and makeshift right-back Konrad Laimer is also ruled out.

Kingsley Coman and Serge Gnabry are injured in the wide forward areas to reduce options. Joshua Kimmich has shaken off a knock and will start, likely replacing teenager Aleksandar Pavlovic. Thomas Muller and Raphael Guerreiro are pushing for recalls to the XI.

Bayern Motivation

Die Roten are below their best and confidence is quite low.

All attention can go on the Champions League as Tuchel looks to rescue the season. They will play to win in Rome but will look for a clean sheet first and foremost.

Key Stats

Lazio have lost just 1 of their last 15 home matches (10 wins) in all competitions

Lazio have lost 2 of their last 4 matches

Lazio have kept clean sheets in their last 3 home matches

Bayern’s Harry Kane scored 4 goals in the UCL group stage

Bayern Munich have won on aggregate in 11 of their last 12 UCL last-16 ties

Bayern Munich have won their last 2 matches vs Lazio (6-2 on aggregate in 2021)

Verdict

This match pits former Chelsea bosses Sarri and Tuchel against each other. Bayern looks much the better team on paper and should win both legs of this tie. A win to zero is quite possible with Lazio far from free scoring of late.

Best Bet: Bayern Munich win at 1.66
Value Bet: Bayern Munich win to zero at 2.95
Goalscorer Tip: Harry Kane first goalscorer at 3.60

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis