Lazio v AC Milan – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Lazio host AC Milan in Serie A on Friday night. The hosts sit eighth in the Serie A table and are eight points off the top four. The Rossoneri have won five of the last six meetings between the clubs and three of their last four away fixtures in Serie A.

Lazio Form

The last eight matches have seen four losses. Lazio were thrashed 3-0 away at Inter Milan in the Italian Super Cup in January. After a 0-0 home draw vs Napoli, they lost 3-1 at Atalanta before a 3-1 win at Claudio Ranieri’s Cagliari.

In the UEFA Champions League, they ground out an impressive 1-0 home victory over Bayern Munich in the last-16 first leg. To highlight their inconsistency, a 2-1 home defeat followed to top-four rivals Bologna. Maurizio Sarri’s side went to Torino and won 2-0 but Monday saw a 2-1 defeat at Fiorentina having led 1-0.

Lazio Team News

Sarri is without centre-back Patric due to a sprained ankle. Nicolo Casale will continue in the heart of the defence. Midfielder Nicolo Rovella has a groin injury and misses out.

The XI is relatively settled but could see a couple of changes. Both Mattia Zaccagni and Elseid Hysaf came on at half-time vs Viola and are likely to be handed starting berths in this one.

Lazio Motivation

The Biancocelesti need a win at home to keep their top-four hopes alive. They will play to win the match and won’t settle for a draw.

With Bayern Munich away on the horizon, they may not be fully focused on this match.

AC Milan Form

Stefano Pioli’s side are winless in three matches. Before that, it was just one loss in 13 fixtures going back to early December. A 3-2 win at Udinese made it four successive Serie A victories before a 2-2 home draw vs Bologna after conceding in the last minute. Two more league wins followed, including 1-0 at home to Napoli.

AC Milan made light work of Rennes in the Europa League playoff round, winning the first leg 3-0 at home. However, successive losses followed. They were beaten 4-2 at Monza in the league after it was 2-2 with 89 minutes on the clock. A 3-2 second leg loss at Rennes followed. On Sunday, they drew 1-1 at home to Atalanta despite having 68% possession and 20 shots.

AC Milan Team News

There are two players with significant doubts over their involvement. Centre-back Fikayo Tomori and midfielder Tommaso Pobega are nearing comebacks from injury, but this match may come a week too soon.

At right back, Davide Calabria is set to replace Alessandro Florenzi. The rest of the XI could remain the same with Ruben Loftus-Cheek as the number ten, and both Samuel Chukwueze and Pierre Kalulu left on the bench.

AC Milan Motivation

Milan host Slavia Prague next Thursday but full attention can go on this match. They will look to take at least a point in Rome.

They sit seven points clear of fifth spot and a draw would be a good result on paper.

Key Stats

Lazio have lost just 2 of their last 17 home matches (11 wins) in all competitions

Lazio have lost 4 of their last 8 matches

Lazio have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 home matches

AC Milan have won 3 of their last 4 away Serie A matches

Milan have won 5 of their last 6 matches vs Lazio

Verdict

The hosts are wildly inconsistent right now and struggle vs these opponents. Lazio could be distracted by their tie against Bayern Munich, so an away win looks a good bet.

Best Bet: AC Milan win at 2.25
Alternate Bet: AC Milan win/draw double chance + Under 3.5 goals at 1.74
Goalscorer Tip: Rafael Leao to score anytime at 3.00

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis