Barcelona v Atletico Madrid – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Barcelona host Atletico Madrid at the Camp Nou on Saturday afternoon in a crucial match in the La Liga title race. With four rounds left, Diego Simeone’s side are top the log with 76 points but a home win for Ronald Koeman’s team (74 points) will see them leapfrog Atleti and go top, at least until Real Madrid play Sevilla on Sunday. With a shock defeat at home to Granada last weekend, Barcelona will be desperate for victory here.

Barcelona Form

Barcelona had been in outstanding form – 19 matches unbeaten in La Liga – before a 2-1 loss at Real Madrid in the Clasico in early April. Koeman’s side responded well by thrashing Athletic Bilbao 4-0 to win the Coppa del Rey before thumping Getafe 5-2. Lionel Messi bagged braces in both matches.

An excellent 2-1 win at Villarreal followed thanks to a brace by Antoine Griezmann. Barcelona then suffered a shock 2-1 home defeat to Granada having led 1-0 with 62 minutes on the clock. Koeman’s side hit back to win 3-2 at Valencia in midweek as Messi scored twice and Griezmann once.

Barcelona Team News

After the shock defeat to Granada, Ronald Koeman dropped Sergi Roberto and Samuel Umtiti for the win at Valencia with Serginho Dest and Clement Lenglet recalled. The Dutch coach, who faces a touchline ban for this match is expected to stick with the same XI in a 3-5-2 shape. That means Ousmane Dembele has to make do with a place on the bench as Griezmann is preferred as Messi’s partner.

Philippe Coutinho and Ansu Fati remain absent in attacking midfield areas after knee surgery. Both are still several months from a return.

Barcelona Motivation

Barcelona simply have to win this match. There are only four rounds left and both Madrid clubs are in the title race so a draw opens up the door to Los Blancos to take a lead (which is made greater by them leading Barca on head-to-head in table).

Koeman will set up to be solid in a 3-5-2 shape with huge reliance on the in-form front pairing of Messi and Griezmann to work their magic. Should Barcelona be trailing, a defender could be removed for winger Dembele with the formation moving to 4-3-3

Atletico Form

Atletico have had a major drop in results and performances. Their lead at the top of La Liga is now just two points having once been 10 points. They have lost five of their last 14 matches in all competitions including losing both legs to Chelsea in the UEFA Champions League round of 16.

Their La Liga results have seen just six wins in their last 13 matches. A run of three wins in nine matches saw defeats to Levante and Sevilla and included draws with Levante, Getafe and Real Betis. They appeared to have found form again with a 5-0 thrashing of Eibar and a 2-0 win against Huesca but a shock 2-1 loss at Athletic Bilbao (winless in eight matches) followed. Atleti’s last match saw a 1-0 win at Elche as Marcos Llorente scored the goal.

Atletico Team News

Diego Simeone has been without his two top strikers of late as Luis Suarez and Joao Felix injuries saw them miss two matches and then return as substitutes in the defeat to Athletic Bilbao. Having used a back four in that match, Simeone retuned to a back three to win at Elche. Suarez was back in the starting XI and Jose Gimenez returned from suspension and the side looked much more like themselves again.

Joao Felix is fit and will likely be on the bench again as Marcos Llorente and Angel Correa have been in excellent form in forward areas.

Atletico Motivation

Atletico will play to win this match but from a solid defensive base and then trying to nick a goal at the Camp Nou. A defeat would a be a disaster for Simeone’s team and if Real Madrid won too, it may spell the death knell for their title challenge.

A draw would be an okay result in that it keeps Barcelona two points away but a Real Madrid win would see them go level on points with Atleti and supplant them as league leaders due to having a better head to head record.

Key Stats

Barcelona have lost 2 of their last 5 La Liga matches

Barcelona defeat to Granada ended a 13 match unbeaten home La Liga run

Barcelona have scored 20 goals in their last 7 home La Liga matches

Barcelona have seen under 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 7 La Liga matches vs Atletico

Barcelona are home matches matches vs Atleti without victory (DL) in all competitions

Atletico have the best defence in La Liga with 22 goals conceded in 34 matches

Atletico have won 1 of their last 5 away La Liga matches (DLDLW)

Atletico have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 8 La Liga matches

Prediction

This is bound to be a very tight, cagey and hard fought match. Atletico are likely to really dig in and try to stifle Barcelona and with just two genuine forwards, Koeman’s side may be easier to stop than with a front three. Both sides will try to win but perhaps a draw is most likely considering the stakes and the fact that it’s a decent result for the away side

Best Bet: Draw at 3.70

Alternative Bet: Draw and under 2.5 goals at 4.70

Alternative Bet: 1-0 Barcelona win at 6.75

Alternative Bet: Messi and Suarez to both score anytime at no odds yet (build your bet