Atletico Madrid v Barcelona – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Atletico Madrid faces Barcelona in La Liga on Saturday night at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano with the Catalan giants in crisis. Coach Ronald Koeman looks set to be sacked in the coming days unless he can turn things around in a dramatic fashion. Atletico went to AC Milan and won in midweek whilst Barca was humbled 3-0 by Benfica.

Atletico Form

Atletico hasn’t been playing particularly well yet has 14 points from seven La Liga matches and four points from their first two UEFA Champions League group games. The side has been relying on late goals as a 99th-minute strike was required to win at Espanyol. That was followed by a poor home display against Porto in a 0-0 draw that saw their opponents put up 1.4 xG more than them.

A 0-0 home draw with Athletic Bilbao came next before two late Luis Suarez goals to beat Getafe. Their fortune ran out in losing 1-0 at Alaves with just one shot on target. They bounced back to win at AC Milan on Tuesday with goals in the 84th and 97th minutes, the latter a questionable penalty. They played against ten men for the final hour too.

Atletico Team News

Diego Simeone switched to a back four in Milan and left both Joao Felix and Antoine Griezmann on the bench. The latter came on to score the equalizer and surely start against his former club alongside Luis Suarez.

Simeone made a series of early changes in the last match, hooking Kieran Trippier after 40 minutes for an extra striker in Joao Felix, and both Hermoso and Yannick Carrasco were taken off at half-time. He may look to shake his side up a bit for this match after not playing well in recent weeks.

Atletico Motivation

Atleti could use a back five or a back four for this match and are sure to have at least one excellent forward on the bench to turn things if needed.

Considering Barcelona’s form, Atletico will go all out to win this match and would probably see a draw as a poor result.

Barcelona Form

Barcelona feels in genuine crisis despite being unbeaten in La Liga with three wins and three draws in six matches. Their last five matches in all competitions have been a mess. They were beaten 3-0 at home by Bayern Munich in a match where the damage could have been even worse and the side only produced 0.2 xG themselves.

A 1-1 home draw with Granada and a 0-0 stalemate at Cadiz followed. Barcelona then looked a bit more lively in beating Levante 3-0 at home as Memphis Depay, Luuk De Jong, and the returning Ansu Fati scored. However, in midweek they were beaten with ease by Benfica in a 3-0 away humiliation to put their hopes of progression to the Champions League knockout stages in serious doubt.

Barcelona Team News

Koeman will surely revert to a back four as his back three with wingbacks was ripped apart in midweek. Eric Garcia and Sergi Roberto are prime candidates to be dropped after their showings. Left-back Jordi Alba remains absent so right-footed Sergiño Dest will cover.

Gerard Pique was hooked after 33 minutes against Benfica in a horror show but should still start this one.
Ousmane Dembele, Martin Braithwaite, and Sergio Aguero are all injured upfront so it’ll be Memphis Depay plus two. Philippe Coutinho could start while Ansu Fati is steadily reintroduced after a long-term knee injury.

Barcelona Motivation

Barca would almost certainly bite your hand off for a draw from this match. It could be Ronald Koeman’s last match in charge and, the Dutch players aside, not many of the squad are likely to lose sleep over that eventuality.

The side will try to keep the ball as usual but lack the cutting edge and quality to create regular chances. It could be a back five or back four but it won’t make a huge difference to their confused current outlook.

Key Stats

Atletico are unbeaten in 4 matches against Barca (W2, D2)

Barca have won 1 of their last 5 matches (D2, L2)

Atletico have won 5 and drawn 3 of their last 9 matches

Atletico have come from behind to win 3 of their last 6 matches

Atleti have kept 1 clean sheet in their last 5 La Liga matches

Barca have lost 1 of their last 16 away La Liga matches (2 away draws since Messi left)

Verdict

This match is between two sides not playing well right now. The difference is that Atleti is still grinding out results even if very late goals have been required. Both defences are below their best so each side should score once. Atleti to win from behind again could be a decent value bet.

Best Bet: Atletico Madrid win at 1.90
Alternative Bet: Atletico Madrid/draw (double chance) + under 3.5 goals at 1.71
Value Bet: Atletico to win from behind at 10.25
Correct Score Tip: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Barcelona at 8.25