Belgium v Italy– Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Belgium faces Italy in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday. The Red Devils have four points from four matches so far, conceding two goals in each of their last three fixtures. Italy, with ten points, currently tops Group 2 in League A.

Belgium Form

Belgium went 15 games unbeaten before their Round of 16 exit at the Euros after a 1-0 loss to France. Their Nations League campaign started with a 3-1 win over Israel, generating an impressive 3.53 xG in that match.

A 2-0 away loss to France followed, before a 2-2 draw against Italy last Thursday. Belgium played 52 minutes with an extra man but managed just 0.95 xG in a lackluster performance. In their most recent match, they suffered a 2-1 home loss to France, despite Les Bleus being reduced to ten men in the 76th minute.

Belgium Team News

Belgium welcomes back Amadou Onana, Matz Sels, and Romelu Lukaku for this game. However, Kevin De Bruyne, Alexis Saelemaekers, Charles De Ketelaere, and Jeremy Doku are unavailable due to injuries.

Thibaut Courtois is also out, so coach Domenico Tedesco has called up several inexperienced players, including Chelsea’s Romeo Lavia and Albert Sambi Lokonga.

Belgium Motivation

The Red Devils are using this Nations League to experiment and reduce their dependency on star players like De Bruyne and Lukaku. While they will aim to win, a strong performance may be more important than the result.

Italy Form

Like Belgium, Italy exited in the Round of 16 at the Euros, having lost 1-0 to Spain in the group stage and being eliminated by Switzerland in the knockout round. Their Nations League journey began with a 3-1 comeback win over France.

They followed that up with a 2-1 victory over Israel at a neutral venue but later surrendered a 2-0 lead against Belgium to draw 2-2, despite being a man down for 50 minutes. In their latest outing, Italy convincingly defeated Israel 4-1, generating 2.77 xG compared to just 0.26 for their opponents.

Italy Team News

Luciano Spalletti has left out Jorginho again, but Nicolo Barella returns to the squad for the first time since the Euros. Moise Kean is fit and included among the forward options.

Federico Chiesa and Gianluca Scamacca are sidelined with injuries, and Riccardo Calafiori is absent from the defense. Four uncapped players, including Lazio’s Nicolò Rovella and Leicester City’s Caleb Okoli, have been called up.

Italy Motivation

Italy is highly motivated and confident, viewing this tournament as an opportunity to win the Nations League. Spalletti’s team is possession-based and will look to control the game in Brussels.

Key Stats

Belgium has lost 6 of their last 12 Nations League matches.

Belgium has lost 4 of their last 8 matches (after going 15 games unbeaten).

Belgium’s Romelu Lukaku has scored 85 goals in 119 appearances for his country.

Italy has won 3 of their last 4 matches.

Italy has won 5 of their last 7 encounters with Belgium.

Verdict

This match promises to be open and exciting, with goals likely. Italy is currently in better form and should avoid defeat in Belgium, although Lukaku—who plays in Serie A and serves as Belgium’s captain—will be highly motivated.

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score at 1.66

Alternate Bet: Italy win/draw double chance + Over 1.5 goals at 2.00

Correct Score Tip: Belgium 1-1 Italy at 5.75

Goalscorer Tip: Romelu Lukaku to score anytime at 2.35