Italy vs Belgium – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Italy faces Belgium in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday night. The Azzurri beat France in Paris and Israel in Budapest during the September FIFA break. The Red Devils also beat Israel but lost 2-0 away to France. Italy has won five of their last six matches against Belgium.

Italy Form

Italy only reached the last 16 of the Euros. They began the tournament with a 2-1 win over Albania, registering 17 shots. A 1-0 loss to Spain saw Italy thoroughly outplayed. A 98th-minute equalizer was needed to rescue a 1-1 draw against Croatia, ensuring their progression.

In the round of 16, they were beaten 2-0 by Switzerland, having been dominated in the first half (10-1 on shots). In September’s international break, the Azzurri won both Nations League matches. A famous 3-1 win away to France was followed by a 2-1 victory over Israel in a match played in Hungary.

Italy Team News

Luciano Spalletti has continued to leave Jorginho and Nicolò Barella out of the squad since the Euros. Moise Kean is injured and will not take part in the attack after scoring against Israel. Sandro Tonali is back in the squad after serving his suspension.

At the back, Matteo Darmian and Gianluca Mancini are again excluded, and there is no place for Liverpool winger Federico Chiesa. Gianluca Scamacca is out with a long-term injury, and two uncapped attackers have been called up: Udinese’s Lorenzo Lucca and Monza’s Daniel Maldini, the son of the legendary Paolo Maldini.

Italy Motivation

This is something of a new era for Italy, as Spalletti omits some big names and selects several less well-known players.

Confidence is high after the two wins in September, and Italy will look to attack Belgium and win this fixture in Rome.

Belgium Form

Belgium entered the European Championships on a 15-match unbeaten run. A 1-0 defeat to Slovakia in the tournament opener was followed by a 2-0 win over Romania and a 0-0 draw against Ukraine to reach the round of 16.

Their Euros campaign ended with a 1-0 loss to France, with Belgium managing just five shots. In the Nations League opener, they beat Israel 3-1, recording 25 shots and 3.53 Expected Goals. Their most recent match saw a 2-0 defeat away to France.

Belgium Team News

Amadou Onana has withdrawn from the squad due to injury, and Nottingham Forest goalkeeper Matz Sels has also been ruled out. Leandro Trossard is recalled, but Romelu Lukaku and Yannick Carrasco have not been selected for the second consecutive FIFA break.

Thomas Meunier has been dropped, and neither Kevin De Bruyne nor Alexis Saelemaekers is in the squad. Lois Openda of RB Leipzig will lead the line, while Koen Casteels will play in goal, with Thibaut Courtois unavailable.

Belgium Motivation

The Red Devils are without many of their experienced players. They are looking to gain valuable experience and will aim for a strong performance in this match.

A draw would be considered a good result. Domenico Tedesco, born in Italy, will not want to lose against his birth country.

Key Stats

Italy has won their last 2 matches.

Italy has won 5 of their last 6 matches against Belgium.

Belgium has lost 5 of their last 10 Nations League matches.

Belgium has lost 3 of their last 6 matches (after going 15 matches unbeaten before that).

Verdict

The Azzurri seem to be adapting well to their coach’s strategies. Belgium is missing several key players and may struggle once again. A low-scoring match is expected.

Best Bet: Italy to win at 1.90

Alternate Bet: Italy to win by 1 goal at 3.45

Correct Score Tip: Italy 1-0 Belgium at 6.75

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis