Italy v England – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

England host Italy at Wembley Stadium on Sunday night in the final of Euro 2020. The Three Lions have never won this tournament despite their tongue-in-cheek chants that “It’s coming home”. Italy have won a FIFA World Cup as recently as 2006 and were European Championship runners up in 2012 but have not lifted this trophy for 53 years. The match will pit some club teammates against each other, not least recent UEFA Champions League winners from Chelsea.

Italy have not lost a match since 2018 in the UEFA Nations League against Portugal, going 33 games without defeat. They have been highly impressive in Euro 2020, especially initially, with three wins, seven goals scored and three clean sheets in the group stage.

In the knockout rounds, they needed extra time to beat Austria 2-1 with Federico Chiesa and Matteo Pessina on target. In the quarter-finals, they were excellent to beat Belgium 2-1 after first-half goals from Nicolo Barella and Lorenzo Insigne. The second half was expertly seen out with typical Italian gamesmanship. The semi-final saw Italy outplayed for most of the match by Spain (1.6 to 0.7 on Expected Goals), but the Azzurri took the lead and then fought through to penalties to take the victory.

Italy Team News

Roberto Mancini saw a key tactical weapon in attacking left-back Leonardo Spinazzola injuring his Achilles against Belgium which was the end of his tournament. Chelsea’s Emerson Palmieri is expected to deputise in that position despite his lack of minutes at club level.

The other big selection call is over which midfielder to select alongside Nicolo Barella and Jorginho. It’s a straight choice between Marco Verratti and Manuel Locatelli, who scored twice in the group stage, but the former is the likely selection. In attack, Ciro Immobile will probably keep his place as the number nine but there is some talk of using Lorenzo Insigne as a false nine or starting Andrea Belotti for his extra physicality.

Italy Motivation

This Italian squad has great team spirit and will be desperate to win their first European Championship since 1968 having lost the final in 2012. Mancini’s side will look to stamp their authority on the match and dominate possession but can also dig in and defend for long periods like Italian teams of old.

Against Spain, they struggled for much of the match but eventually nicked the lead and then won on penalties. They would have no qualms about taking this match to extra time and penalties if needed.

England Form

Having lost to Denmark and Belgium at the back end of 2020, England have been in good form since then thanks to a very solid defensive record. Their last 12 matches having brought 11 wins and 10 clean sheets with just two goals conceded.

Their Euros so far has been solid but not spectacular. A 1-0 win against Croatia was followed by a goalless draw with Scotland and a 1-0 victory against the Czech Republic to complete the group. In the knockouts, they beat Germany 2-0 through Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane goals despite conceding a couple of big one-on-one chances. A 4-0 thrashing of Ukraine came next before squeezing past Denmark after a fortunate extra-time penalty. Their performance in the second half and in extra time deserved victory though.

England Team News

The big question for coach Gareth Southgate is whether to stick with his 4-2-3-1 shape of the last two rounds or revert to the 3-4-3 that he played against Germany. The latter system was partly to match up to the opposition so against Italy’s back four, he is expected to do the same.

On the right flank, it will be Bukayo Saka or Phil Foden with Mason Mount expected to keep his place as the number ten. If the coach does go to a back three, then Saka or Mount will lose their place to Kieran Trippier. Jack Grealish is expected to be left on the bench as a possible impact substitute once again.

England Motivation

England have never won the European Championship and will have a vocal English crowd behind them at Wembley. Motivation will be extremely high and they are expected to try to play at a high tempo against the Italians.

Southgate’s side are capable of playing without the ball and sitting back to spring counters and that may be a wise strategy for parts of this match to avoid opening themselves up to the pace of Chiesa and Insigne for Italy. Should England be trailing, Southgate has several excellent bench options to call upon in the shape of Grealish, Foden, Jaden Sancho and Marcus Rashford. Considering their history, England are expected to try to avoid penalties and will attack should the match go to extra time.

Key Stats

Italy are 33 matches unbeaten since 2018 (W28, D5)

Italy are 3 matches without a clean sheet after 11 in a row before that

England have won 11 of their last 12 matches (D1)

England have kept 10 clean sheets in their last 12 matches

England have seen under 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 8 matches

England have won 1 of their last 8 matches against Italy (D4)

Prediction

This will be a very tight match. It is unlikely that either side will score more than once in regulation time with a 1-0 win either way or 1-1 most likely. The best bet is probably on a draw in 90 minutes with extra time required.

Best Bet: Draw (90 mins) at 3.00

Alternative Bet: England to lift the cup at 1.83

Alternative Bet: Score draw (90 mins) at 4.85

Goalscorer Tip: Raheem Sterling (anytime scorer) at 4.20

Correct Score Tip: 1-1 draw at 7.00

Grant de Smidt is a football writer based in South Africa. He writes for a number of sites and newspapers including bet.co.za. Follow @grantdesmidt on Twitter.