Inter Milan v Atalanta – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

Inter Milan welcomes Napoli to the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on Sunday evening. The defending Serie A champions face the league leaders in a key clash considering the seven-point gap between the teams. Both sides have dropped points of late whilst Internazionale is four matches without defeat against Partenopei. The match pits Serie A’s top scorer against the best defence.

Inter Milan Form

Inter have been inconsistent this season under new coach Simone Inzaghi. They have lost just one in 12 Serie A matches but have drawn four times already. With 29 goals scored, they are looking very exciting and enterprising but have conceded more than a goal per game.

After a 3-1 loss at Lazio, Inter bounced back to beat Sheriff 3-1 in UEFA Champions League. A home draw with Juventus followed before three consecutive victories in all competitions. Their last match saw a 1-1 draw with AC Milan in a strong performance where they produced 2.35 xG to just 1.16 xG for Milan.

Inter Milan Team News

Key midfielder Nicolo Barella went off injured in Inter’s last match but he featured for Italy in World Cup qualifying and should be fit for this match. Target man Edin Dzeko also went off against AC Milan but he missed the FIFA break and is not expected to play in this one. Joaquin Correa is expected to replace him with Alexis Sanchez also an injury concern.

Simone Inzaghi also has doubts over defenders Stefan de Vrij and Alessandro Bastoni could both should be fit to start. Christian Eriksen remains absent after his heart problems.

Inter Milan Motivation

Inter will play to win. They need to reduce the seven-point hap to Napoli at the top of the table so a draw would be a poor result. A defeat would see them 10 points off Napoli and possibly 10 points off AC Milan too.

Napoli Form

Napoli has made a superb start to this season. They won their first eight league matches whilst their last four have seen two wins and two draws. Their four goals conceded in 12 matches is by far the best defensive record in the league.

A 0-0 draw at Roma saw them drop their first Serie A points of the season but they bounced back to beat Bologna 3-0 at home and Salernitana 1-0 on the road. A 4-1 Europa League win at Legia Warsaw came next. Their last match saw two points dropped in a 1-1 home draw with Verona albeit without both of their starting center backs. Napoli produced a paltry 0.80 xG in the match.

Napoli Team News

Napoli only has a couple of injuries to deal with. Diego Demme has COVID-19 and is not expected to return just yet in midfield. Right-winger Adam Ounas is another doubt with a muscle injury. Left-back Faouzi Ghoulam is still a long way from returning from a ruptured cruciate ligament.

Nigeria striker Victor Osimhen’s superb form – nine goals in 13 appearances – means he is the key player. Center-back Kalidou Koulibaly returns after missing the last match due to suspension. His usual partner Kostas Manolas should also be fit to start. Amir Rrahmani and Juan Jesus had deputized in central defence for the draw against Verona.

Napoli Motivation

Napoli is extremely strong defensively and will look for a clean sheet, first and foremost. A draw would be a decent result to maintain a seven-point lead over Inter but AC Milan is level on points and could leapfrog Napoli if they better their result this weekend.

Key Stats

Inter have scored the most goals in Serie A (29 in 12 matches)

Napoli have conceded the fewest goals in Serie A (4 in 12 matches)

Inter are 4 matches unbeaten against Napoli in all comps (D-W-W-D)

The last 5 meetings between these sides have seen under 2.5 goals

Napoli have conceded 2 goals in their last 6 away Serie A matches

Inter are 22 home Serie A matches unbeaten (W19, D3)

Napoli’s Osimhen has scored 9 goals in 963 mins in Serie A this season

Verdict

This is a big match in the title race and a must-not-lose for both sides, though Inter needs the win more urgently. Napoli’s rock-solid defence should be seen them avoid defeat but Inter seldom lose at home. A draw looks the most likely result.

Best Bet: Napoli/Draw double chance + under 3.5 goals at 2.50
Value Bet: Draw at 3.35
Goalscorer Tip: Victor Osimhen anytime scorer at 2.80
Correct Score Tip: Inter 1-1 Napoli at 7.25

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis