Inter Milan v FC Porto – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Inter Milan faces Porto at the San Siro on Wednesday night in the UEFA Champions League round of 16. The hosts last made it past the round of 16 in 2011 when they were the defending champions. FC Porto have made the quarters in two of the past four seasons and won their final four group matches to reach this stage.

Inter Form

Internazionale have played 11 matches since the World Cup with just one defeat. They’ve lifted the Italian Super Cup by thrashing AC Milan 3-0 and have progressed in the Coppa Italia after a 1-0 win against Atalanta. Their sole defeat was a 1-0 home reverse to Empoli in late January as they played the entire second half with ten men.

A dominant 2-1 win at Cremonese came next before the Atalanta cup win and then a 1-0 victory over city rivals, Milan in Serie A. Their lack of goals continued with a 0-0 draw at Sampdoria as they had 25 shots without scoring. Over the weekend, they beat Udinese 3-1 at home with 3.01 Expected Goals produced including a penalty.

Inter Team News

Marcelo Brozovic has returned from injury in recent weeks and started over the weekend. He will be in the XI for this big match. Nicolò Barella and Hakan Calhanoglu will compete for one spot in the engine room. Andre Onana was on the bench over the weekend but is set to return, as is Milan Skriniar in defence.

Up front, Romelu Lukaku scored a penalty last time out and should get the nod over Edin Dzeko alongside Lautaro Martinez. Robin Gosens will battle Federico Dimarco for the left wingback role.

Inter Motivation

The rotation over the weekend showed that this is the priority match this week. Inter are desperate to do something in this competition after years of underperformance.

They haven’t been particularly free-flowing of late and could be quite cagey in this first leg, even at home.

FC Porto Form

FC Porto haven’t lost a single match since a 1-0 home defeat to Benfica in October. They’ve played 22 matches since then with 19 wins and three draws. In the Champions League, they lost their first two matches (including 4-0 at home to Club Brugge) but won their final four fixtures and topped their group.

There are currently on a run of eight successive victories. Seven of those wins saw clean sheets. They’ve been very steady and consistent in that scoreline. Three 2-0 wins in a row were followed by a 2-1 league win at rivals Sporting Lisbon. Their last match saw a 1-0 home win against Rio Ave.

FC Porto Team News

The big question mark for Sergio Conceicao is over midfielder Otavio. He started three matches at the World Cup and is a key man, but he has missed several recent fixtures and remains a major doubt but it seems he has a chance of featuring. Striker Toni Martinez scored against Rio Ave but picked up a knock so he is touch-and-go.

Colombian holding midfielder Mateus Uribe has been out with a ruptured spleen and his status is very much in question. Defenders Wendell and Fabio Cardoso are set to miss out and 39-year-old Pepe will marshall the defence.

FC Porto Motivation

Conceicao’s side are high-intensity and generally very attacking. They know a draw is a great result but they won’t achieve it by parking the bus.

Porto went to Bayer Leverkusen and won 3-0 and then won 4-0 in Belgium at Club Brugge in the group stage. They are capable of ruthless counter-attacking football at times on the road.

Key Stats

Inter have won 11 of their last 12 home matches (all competitions)

Inter’s last 5 UCL matches at home have only seen one side on target (W3, L2)

Inter have lost just 1 of their last 5 matches in this competition (3 wins to nil)

Porto have won their last 2 away Champions League matches

Five of Porto’s last 7 away UCL matches have seen Both Teams to Score No

Porto have lost 3 of their last 4 away matches in Italy

Verdict

This is a tough match to predict. Inter are hardly free-scoring now, but they have some well-rested players and a solid structure to fall back on. Porto are a mixed bag at times and have a few players who are injury doubts. A draw is quite possible here or a narrow Inter win.

Best Bet: Inter Milan to qualify over two legs at 1.62
Value Bet: Inter Milan to win by 1 goal at 3.40
Multiplier Leg: Inter Milan/Draw double chance + under 3.5 goals at 1.60

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis