Inter Milan v Bayern Munich – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Inter Milan welcomes Bayern Munich to the San Siro on Wednesday night in the UEFA Champions League. The hosts have lost twice already in Serie A this season and were knocked out in the last 16 of this competition by Liverpool last season. Bayern were handed a shock exit by Villarreal last season and begin life in this competition without former striker Robert Lewandowski.

Inter Form

Internazionale have won three and lost two of their five Serie A matches so far this season. A 2-1 win at Lecce on an opening day required a last minute winner. They then beat Spezia 3-0 before losing 3-1 at Lazio. They conceded twice in the final 15 minutes of that match. Inter responded with a 3-1 home win against Cremonese.

Their match over the weekend saw a disappointing 3-2 loss in the derby to AC Milan. They were outshot 21-16 and conceded three goals in a 32 minute period in the match. Inter’s progress to last season’s round of 16 ended a run of three UEFA Champions League campaigns where they failed to progress from the group stage.

Inter Team News

Inter have a settled squad from last season as they only lost Ivan Perisic who was a regular starter. Romelu Lukaku has returned on loan from Chelsea but he is out injured for this match and hasn’t looked himself in his outings so far.

Edin Dzeko and Joaquin Correa are the options to partner Lautaro Martinez. Correa got the nod against AC Milan but Dzeko netted off the bench. Matteo Darmian and Robin Gosens will compete for the left wingback role. New signings Henrikh Mkhitaryan is set to remain amongst the substitutes.

Inter Motivation

In a tough group also featuring Barcelona, it is imperative for Inter to get off to a good start. They will play on the front foot as they did in the tie against Liverpool last season.

Coach Simone Inzaghi will play for a win but may not consider a draw to be a disaster – avoiding defeat on matchday one is key.

Bayern Form

After winning their opening three Bundesliga matches of this season, Bayern have surprisingly drawn their last two in the league. A 6-1 thrashing of last season’s Europa League winners Eintracht Frankfurt began the season before beating Wolfsburg 2-0 at home. A 7-0 thumping of Bochum on the road followed in what was a mightily impressive start.

Bayern then needed a late goal to draw 1-1 at home with Borussia Monchengladbach ahead of a 5-0 DFB Pokal win at Viktoria Köln. Over the weekend, Bayern drew 1-1 on the road at Union Berlin. Joshua Kimmich got a first half goal. The Bavarian giants were knocked out in the quarter-final stage last season after a 2-1 aggregate defeat to Villarreal.

Bayern Team News

Coach Julian Nagelsmann has replaced outgoing striker Robert Lewandowski with Sadio Mane this season. His side have been using something resembling a 4-2-2-2 shape with mobile forwards ahead of playmakers Thomas Muller and Jamal Musiala.

The coach has to decide between Matthijs De Ligt and Lucas Hernandez at centre back. Marcel Sabitzer should keep his place in midfield ahead of fit-again Leon Goretzka. Serge Gnabry is competing with Leroy Sane to play in attack with Sadio Mane.

Bayern Motivation

Bayern will attack and play to win this fixture. They look certain to dominate the ball and will look to drag Inter’s back five around whilst also leaving enough cover to deal with two strikers.

Nagelsmann will play for three points to start a tough group but a draw actually looks a good result as long as they win their home matches.

Key Stats

Inter’s last 4 UCL matches have seen under 2.5 goals

Inter have lost their last 2 home matches against Bayern Munich (CL)

Inter have lost 2 of their last 3 matches (Serie A)

Inter have won just 3 of their last 12 home CL matches (4 defeats in 8)

Bayern have lost just two of their last 31 Champions League matches

Bayern have won 14 of their last 17 away CL matches

Bayern have conceded in their last 3 away matches (CL)

Verdict

This should be a very good match and you would expect there to be goals. Bayern look the favourites due to Inter’s struggles in this competition, particularly at home. Barcelona, Real Madrid (twice), and Liverpool have all won at the San Siro in the last two years and I’m tipping Bayern to do the same.

Best Bet: Bayern Munich win at 1.83
Multiplier Leg: Bayern Munich/Draw double chance + over 2.5 goals at 1.95
Value Bet: Bayern Munich win and over 2.5 goals at 2.40

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis