Inter Milan v Atletico Madrid – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Inter Milan host Atletico Madrid at the San Siro on Tuesday in the UEFA Champions League. Inter lost last season’s final to Man City and will have their eye on another deep run in the competition. Atletico are looking to reach at least the quarter-finals as they did in 2022.

Inter Form

Inter have had a sublime domestic season, lost just one of their 24 Serie A matches and held a nine-point gap at the top of the table. With 59 goals scored and just 12 conceded, they’ve been incredible going both ways this term.

They won 3-0 at home over Lazio and then 1-0 away at Napoli and 1-0 at Fiorentina. A 1-0 home win over Juventus extended their cushion in the title race. After those four successive clean sheets, the Nerazzurri won 4-2 at Roma. On Friday, they thrashed Salernitana 4-0 at home. They put up 3.99 xG and only allowed one shot in 90 minutes.

Inter Team News

Wingback Juan Cuadrado is out long-term with an Achilles injury. Midfielder Davide Frattesi is back in contention after a knock. Federico Dimarco was rested on Friday and will return at left wingback.

Coach Simone Inzaghi also handed Matteo Darmian a breather in the last match. The only other player ruled out is centre-back Francesco Acerbi with Stefan de Vrij set to deputise.

Inter Motivation

Inter are incredibly confident and adaptable right now. They can dominate opponents or absorb pressure when needed.

They will push to win this first leg. That would force Atletico to open up in Spain and expose themselves to Martinez and Thuram on the counter-attack.

Atletico Madrid Form

Atletico have stuttered since December with six losses in 18 matches in all competitions. After losing three of six matches in La Liga over four weeks, they were also beaten 5-3 by Real Madrid in the Spanish Super Cup. After five wins in a row to get back on track, they went to Los Blancos and drew 1-1 in the league.

Two poor 1-0 losses followed. They were beaten 1-0 at home by Athletic Bilbao despite outshooting their opponents 20-9. They then lost 1-0 at Sevilla after again dominating large parts of that clash. On Saturday, they thrashed Las Palmas 5-0 at home as they created 3.47 xG from just 35% possession at home.

Atletico Madrid Team News

Coach Diego Simeone is without wingback Vitolo and Thomas Lemar in the midfield. Cesar Azpilicueta and striker Alvaro Morata are both out injured. Veteran centre-back Gabriel Paulista is also absent.

Jose Gimenez is back after an injury and Antoine Griezmann will start after a rest this weekend. Rodrigo De Paul and Axel Witsel are also set to start. Marcos Llorente surprisingly played as a striker over the weekend but could revert to midfield or even be benched.

Atletico Madrid Motivation

This season has seen Simeone play quite an open and attacking game. However, they will go to Italy and be pragmatic in the first leg.

A draw would feel like a win but even a one-goal defeat would keep the tie alive before the return leg in Spain.

Key Stats

Inter Milan have won 8 matches in a row (21 goals scored)

Inter Milan have lost 1 of their last 26 matches

Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez has 23 goals this season

Atletico Madrid have lost 2 of their last 3 matches

Atletico have won their last 3 UCL matches

Atletico have lost 6 of their 12 away La Liga matches this season

Verdict

The hosts are in incredible form whilst Atleti are quite inconsistent. This match sees two 3-5-2 formations face off, which may lead to the sides cancelling each other. I’m backing a narrow Inter victory though.

Best Bet: Inter Milan win at 1.80
Alternate Bet: Inter Milan to qualify at 1.71
Goalscorer Tip: Lautaro Martinez to score anytime at 2.25

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis