Inter Milan v AC Milan – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Inter Milan host AC Milan in the UEFA Champions League semi-final second leg on Tuesday. The Nerazzurri cruised to a 2-0 win in the first leg and will hope to make their first final since 2010. Stefano Pioli’s side have fallen out of the top four in Serie A but they’re hopeful of star player Rafael Leao returning for this match.

Inter Form

Inter have won seven successive matches. They won 2-0 at Benfica in the last round and then led the second leg 3-1 before conceding two late goals of no consequence for it to end 3-3 (5-3 on aggregate). Since then, they’ve won five Serie A matches and beaten Juventus 1-0 in the Coppa Italia semi-final to reach the final. They also beat Lazio in a key match in the top-four race.

Prior to the first leg against Milan, they won 6-0 at Verona and then 2-0 at Roma for a key result. The first leg saw two goals in the first 11 minutes and the scoreline could have ended 3-0 or 4-0 on another day. Inter made eight changes for the 4-2 weekend win at home to Sassuolo. They conceded 2.29 Expected Goals and only put up 1.37 xG in a fortunate victory.

Inter Team News

Simone Inzaghi only has two injury worries for this match. Milan Skriniar is ruled out at the back and may have played his last game for the club. Joaquin Correa is doubtful in attack but he wouldn’t have started anyway. Inter are expected to select Edin Dzeko ahead of Romelu Lukaku despite the latter’s brace over the weekend.

It’s expected to be the same XI as last week with Matteo Darmian playing on the right of the back three. Marcelo Brozovic is again set to be amongst the substitutes with Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Hakan Çalhanoğlu preferred in midfield.

Inter Motivation

Internazionale have a 2-0 lead and they won’t play an open game. They are very strong on the break so they will back themselves to score at some point.

With Lukaku on the bench and better subs than AC Milan, they have more ability to have quality, fresh players in the final 30 minutes.

AC Milan Form

Milan’s league form has taken a major dip since the World Cup and they’re now four points off the top four places. Their last 19 league matches have brought just six victories. A 1-1 draw at Roma saw them score in the dying seconds to rescue a point. A disappointing 1-1 home draw with Cremonese preceded an impressive 2-0 home win against Lazio.

They went into the first leg on a run of nine matches without defeat. They were totally outclassed a week ago in 2-0 defeat to Inter with the defence exposed by an open setup with little midfield cover. Over the weekend, they lost 2-0 at Spezia. They allowed 1.80 Expected Goals despite having 59% possession.

AC Milan Team News

The Rossoneri have numerous injury concerns. Rafael Leao has missed the last two matches with a groin problem but he is back in training. Stefano Pioli will hope to have him in the starting XI on the left wing. Olivier Giroud will return after a partial rest on Saturday.

Ismaël Bennacer went off injured in the first leg and will miss this one. Rade Krunic is an injury doubt so Pioli may need to start Tommaso Pobega in central midfield. Junior Messias is a doubt on the right wing too, further reducing options.

AC Milan Motivation

Milan needs to keep it tight initially. They won’t want to leak an early goal which could end the tie.

They will look to get 1-0 up and then throw the kitchen sink at Inter in the second half.

Key Stats

AC Milan have lost their last 2 matches

Milan have won just 2 of their last 8 matches

Milan have lost just once in 7 Champions League matches

Inter have 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches vs AC Milan (all competitions)

Inter have won their last 3 matches against AC Milan in all competitions.

Inter have won 7 matches in a row.

Verdict

It’s hard to see anything other than Inter progressing to the final. If Rafael Leao is missing for Milan, it may be worth backing a home win to zero.

Best Bet: Inter Milan Win (90 mins) at 2.10
Alternative Bet: Inter Milan win and Lautaro Martinez to score anytime at 4.16
Value Bet: Draw HT/Inter Milan FT at 4.90

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis