Inter Milan v AC Milan – Preview, Predictions, and Best Bets

Inter Milan face AC Milan in Serie A on Sunday. The Nerazzurri secured a hard-fought point against Manchester City in midweek, while the Rossoneri were comprehensively beaten by Liverpool. Inter have won the last six meetings between these Milan rivals.

Inter Form

Inter had a slight dip in Serie A towards the end of last season, winning just five of their final 10 matches. Despite this, they accumulated 94 points and finished 19 points ahead of second-placed AC Milan. This season began with a surprising 2-2 draw at Genoa after conceding in the 95th minute. They followed this up with a 2-0 win at Lecce.

Simone Inzaghi’s side showed their best form in a 4-0 thrashing of Atalanta at home in the third round. However, after the FIFA break, they needed a late goal to secure a 1-1 draw at Monza. In midweek, they drew 0-0 away to Manchester City, despite allowing 60% possession, 2.35 expected goals (xG), and 22 shots.

Inter Team News

Inter made several changes to their starting lineup in midweek. Lautaro Martinez only came off the bench but is expected to return to the starting XI for this match. Henrikh Mkhitaryan was also rested with this derby in mind.

Benjamin Pavard is set to return to the back three, while Federico Dimarco remains a doubt due to injury, with Carlos Augusto on standby to deputize. Marko Arnautovic is sidelined with a virus, and Tajon Buchanan is out injured.

Inter Motivation

Inter Milan’s lineup changes against Manchester City showed that their focus is fully on this important derby. Their primary goal will be to secure all three points.

As usual, they will aim to dominate the midfield. A draw would be considered a poor result for them.

AC Milan Form

AC Milan have struggled in recent months. Last season ended with defeats in both legs against Roma in the Europa League and just one win in their final seven Serie A matches, during which they conceded 15 goals. This season started with a 2-2 home draw against Torino, thanks to two late goals.

They then lost 2-1 at Parma before drawing 2-2 at Lazio, where they allowed several clear-cut chances. The international break came at a good time, and Milan responded with a 4-0 win against Venezia in their last league match. However, in midweek, they suffered a 3-1 home defeat to Liverpool, being outshot 23-8 and conceding 3.09 xG.

AC Milan Team News

Coach Paulo Fonseca remains without center-back Malick Thiaw. He must decide whether to start Fikayo Tomori or Matteo Gabbia alongside Strahinja Pavlovic in defense.

Alessandro Florenzi and Ismael Bennacer are both out with long-term injuries. If the coach makes changes, Tammy Abraham, Samuel Chukwueze, or Emerson Royal could be brought into the starting XI.

AC Milan Motivation

Milan have lost six consecutive matches against Inter and would gladly settle for a draw in this encounter.

Defensively, they look vulnerable and wide open. They are likely to attack since they aren’t equipped to absorb sustained pressure.

Key Stats

Inter Milan have won just 7 of their last 14 Serie A matches (1 loss, 6 draws).

Inter Milan have won their last 6 matches against AC Milan.

Inter have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 9 matches against AC Milan (all competitions).

AC Milan have won just 2 of their last 14 matches.

AC Milan’s last 11 Serie A matches have seen just 2 wins, with 21 goals conceded.

Verdict

All the statistics point towards an Inter victory. They are likely to win with a clean sheet and could cover the -1 handicap.

Best Bet: Inter Milan to win at 1.64
Alternative Bet: Inter Milan to win (-1 handicap) at 2.65
Value Bet: Inter Milan to win to nil at 3.15