France v Italy – Preview, Predictions and Best Bets

France faces Italy in the UEFA Nations League on Friday. Les Bleus reached the semi-finals at Euro 2024, while the Azzurri were knocked out in the round of 16. France has won the last three meetings between these nations.

France Form

France’s loss to Spain in the Euros semi-finals was only their third defeat in 20 matches. They started the tournament with a 1-0 win over Austria, followed by a 0-0 draw against the Netherlands, in which they outshot their opponents 15-8. A 1-1 draw with Poland in their final group match saw them attempt 19 shots on goal.

In the round of 16, France needed an own goal to edge past Belgium 1-0, despite outshooting the Red Devils 19-5. After winning on penalties against Portugal in the quarter-finals (following a 0-0 draw), they lost 2-1 to Spain in the semi-finals, despite limiting La Roja to just six shots and 0.75 xG.

France Team News

Michael Olise has received his first call-up to the senior France squad. Olivier Giroud has retired from international football, and both Wesley Fofana and Ferland Mendy have withdrawn due to fitness concerns.

Didier Deschamps has made some changes, dropping four players from his Euros squad: Benjamin Pavard, Adrien Rabiot, Eduardo Camavinga, and Kingsley Coman. Aurélien Tchouaméni has also withdrawn due to injury.

France Motivation

Unlike Italy, France has selected their best available squad and is aiming to win the Nations League.

Under Deschamps, they often play pragmatically, focusing on grinding out clean sheets and narrow wins.

Italy Form

Italy exited Euro 2024 in the round of 16. They entered the tournament in good form, having lost just one of their previous 12 matches. They began Euro 2024 with a 2-1 win over Albania after conceding in the first minute. The Azzurri had 17 shots and 68% possession in that match.

A 1-0 loss to Spain followed, before a 1-1 draw with Croatia in the third match, secured by a 98th-minute equalizer. In the round of 16, Italy was beaten 2-0 by Switzerland after being outshot 10-1 in the first half.

Italy Team News

Luciano Spalletti has shuffled his squad for this international break. Uncapped Leicester City center-back Caleb Okoli has been selected, and Atalanta midfielder Marco Brescianini could make his debut.

Defenders Matteo Darmian and Gianluca Mancini have been left out, while Francesco Acerbi is injured. Jorginho, Nicolo Barella, and new Liverpool winger Federico Chiesa have been given a rest, and Gianluca Scamacca is out with a long-term injury.

Italy Motivation

Given the squad changes and the rest afforded to several key players, the Nations League doesn’t appear to be a high priority for Italy.

Spalletti’s side will aim to attack and compete, but this match is also an opportunity to give younger players experience.

Key Stats

France has lost just 3 of their last 20 matches.

France has scored only 4 goals in their last 7 matches (2 own goals, 1 penalty).

France has kept 6 clean sheets in their last 8 matches.

Italy has lost 2 of their last 3 matches.

Italy has lost their last 3 matches against France, with both teams scoring.

Verdict

This match is challenging to predict due to both sides missing key players. However, France appears stronger and should secure a fourth straight win over Italy.

Best Bet: France to win at 1.57

Alternate Bet: France to win to zero at 2.55

Correct Score Tip: France 1-0 Italy at 6.00

James O'Connor

James is a football analyst who writes about the tactics of the PSL and English Premier League. He holds the UEFA A coaching licence and has previously worked for several clubs in analysis roles.Twitter: https://twitter.com/footy_analysis