EUROS 2024 STATS: Who Are The Favourites?

The 2024 European championships kick off this Friday when hosts Germany play Scotland at Bayern Munich’s Allianz Arena. The tournament is in its 17th edition, and this year’s event is one of the most open in recent years. We’ll be here throughout the tournament with stats and data on the teams and players. Our first article looks at the favorites for the tournament, and some reasons why they are favoured. England are hotly tipped to win their first-ever championship, while France will be aiming to equal Germany and Spain on three Euro titles. As hosts, the Germans are also among the top three favourites, with Spain & Portugal not too far behind. Let’s dig in.

England

Euro debut: 1964
Qualifications: 11 (4th most)
Best finish: Silver medallists in 2021
Current World Ranking: 4th (3rd in Europe)
Key players: Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka

Surprisingly for many, England are considered favorites for the Euros. Opta gives them a 19.9% chance to win the tournament, slightly ahead of France. However, when you consider that almost all of this squad reached the final in the last tournament, the high ranking starts to make sense. They also went through the qualifiers without losing a single game, taking six points from the Italian team that beat them in the 2021 final. In a group that features Denmark (World Ranking 21), Serbia (33), and Slovenia (57), the simulations see Gareth Southgate’s men win the group 67% of the time. All in all, the 95% chance of progressing to the Last 16 means it’s a near certainty to see them in the knockouts. With three potential places from the group, it would be a big surprise if they do not progress.

You can bet on England to win the tournament at 1.6/1 on www.bet.co.za

France

Euro debut: 1960
Qualifications: 11 (4th most)
Best finish: Champions (1984 & 2000)
Current World Ranking: 2nd (1st in Europe)
Key players: Kylian Mbappe, Antoine Greizmann, Eduardo Camavinga

At 19.1% to win the tournament, the French are marginally behind England as favourites based on the supercomputer’s simulatioms. Led by new Real Madrid Galactico Kylian Mbappe, France are currently spoiled with a golden generation of exciting talent. The majority of this squad missed out on becoming world champions by penalties to a Messi-inspired Argentina, so they will be keen to lift another major trophy to avenge that pain. Their exit in the Last 16 at the last Euros (also on penalties) sent shockwaves, but they have been assigned a 69% chance to go past that stage into the quarter-finals this time. Les Bleus are also led by a coach who has won the tournament before and would be the first person to win both Euros and World Cup as player and coach should he go all the way.

You can bet on France to win the tournament at 1.66/1 on www.bet.co.za 

Germany

Euro debut: 1972
Qualifications: 14 (most)
Best finish: Champions (1972, 1980 & 1996)
Current World Ranking: 16th (9th in Europe)
Key players: Jamal Musiala, Toni Kroos, Kai Havertz

A year ago, the Germans would not have been listed among the favourites for this tournament. But the form they have shown in the last few months. In particular wins against France and the Netherlands have changed the mood surrounding Die Mannschaft. With a 12.4% chance of winning the tournament, they are one of only three teams given more than 10% by Opta’s predictive model. No team hs been to the Euros more than the Germans, but their recent tournament record has been a bit slack. That said, few teams contain a blend of young in-form players (Havertz, Wirtz, Musiala, Sane) and wise experienced heads (Neuer, Gundogan, Kroos, Muller). Should Coach Naggelsman get his formula right, he could re-ignite a fan base that sometimes harbours mixed feelings towards the national team.

You can bet on Germany to win the tournament at 2.1/1 on www.bet.co.za 

The Best Of The Rest

Spain and star-studded Portugal are other names worth mentioning. The Spanish are fourth favourites, with a 9.6% chance of winning the tournament, although they must first escape a tricky group that features Croatia, Italy, and Albania. Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal are given a 9.2% chance of victory. They have a strong record at the Euros and are the only team to reach this tournament with a 100%-win record in the qualifiers (P10 W10). Can they win a second title?

*NB: All stats from Opta Analyst